780 State Route 369 - Lot 48 · Chenango Bridge, NY 13833

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $123k · 42% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

If you’ve been looking for easy living with a little extra space, this could be the one! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a rare oversized creekside lot in a welcoming mobile home community, giving you plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll love the open floor plan that is great for everyday living or having friends and family over. The sun porch addition is a favorite feature, offering the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee! Contact Samantha Manley for showings 607-427-3364

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Sun porch addition
• Built 1997

Tags

• OVERSIZED CREEKSIDE LOT
• SUN PORCH ADDITION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.0% in Chenango Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Chenango Forks Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #317 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.95%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Nancy Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	18mo	$112,000	$67	45
895 State Route 369 - Lot 70	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	14mo	$111,000	$76	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $73,511
• Equity at exit: $64,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.41×
• Total profit: $189,677
• Equity at exit: $139,880

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13833

• Home prices YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $72,000
3. 2026-02-10
   price $79,900
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$1,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $5,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $5,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chenango Forks Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607260
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,346
• Composite: 46.46/100
• National rank: #2442
• State rank: #317 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chenango Bridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #8828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,176

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.75%
• Current HPI: 300.1045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $72,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $90,000 UNYREIS