470 Darling Creek Ln · Katy, TX 77493

$464,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,504 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 7,438 sqft lot $186/sqft · 9% below area Est $513k · 9% under $110/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

Key facts

• 7,438 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $87k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,773 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.66%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,757
• List price: $464,900
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-169,928
• Equity at exit: $69,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.21×
• Total profit: $-288,121
• Equity at exit: $40,196

Cash invested: $130,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,974/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-1,373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,206

Max offer price $266,179

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,052	-5% $-1,213	+0% $-1,373	+5% $-1,534	+10% $-1,695
Rent	-10% $-1,568	-5% $-1,471	+0% $-1,373	+5% $-1,276	+10% $-1,178
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,139	-0.5pp $-1,255	base $-1,373	+0.5pp $-1,494	+1.0pp $-1,616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,225
• Closing costs: $13,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $464,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $464,900 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

3. 2026-05-04
   price $474,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

4. 2026-05-02
   price $474,900 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

5. 2026-04-25
   price $499,900 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

6. 2026-04-23
   price $499,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

7. 2026-04-18
   status Active 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (718 chars)

   Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

8. 2026-04-16
   historical 718-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

9. 2026-04-16
   price $509,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

10. 2026-04-15
    price $509,900 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

11. 2026-04-07
    price $514,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

12. 2026-04-07
    price $514,900 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

13. 2026-03-31
    price $524,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

14. 2026-03-31
    price $524,900 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

15. 2026-03-30
    price $551,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

16. 2026-03-30
    status Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

17. 2026-03-29
    listed $551,900 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, a 6-burner commercial style gas range top, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows and a cast stone fireplace. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Extended covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

18. 2026-01-12
    historical 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $552,900 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN!! Home office with French doors set at entry with 12-foot ceiling. Extended entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Kitchen features corner walk-in pantry, generous counter space and island with built-in seating space. Dining area flows into family room with wall of windows. Primary suite includes double-door entry to primary bath with dual vanities, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and two large walk-in closets. A guest suite with private bath adds to this spacious one-story home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,042
• − Property taxes: −$6,974
• − Insurance: −$2,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$13,524
• Taxable loss: −$25,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $464,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $464,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $474,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $474,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $499,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $509,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $509,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $514,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $514,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $524,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $524,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $551,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $551,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-12 Listed $552,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS