157 Zafra Dr · Fairfield, CA 94533

$165,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $206/sqft · at area comps Est $168k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1971 single-wide with expando updated and beautiful:. A must See on your list! Spacious Living Area with a large kitchen . Bright and Comfort Living Room. Large 7ft x 17ft Tuff Shed for storage. Plus a low maintenance yard . Stamped concrete patio for your outdoor entertaining or for your own releaxing spot!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971
• Listed 141 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tolenas Academy of Music And Media (583 students, 61% FRL); Grange Middle (780 students, 73% FRL); Fairfield High (math 16% / reading 41%, grade F, #774 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,633 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 47% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,208
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -1.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Zaragoza Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	804 (+0%)	21mo	$189,000	$235	74
140 Segovia Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-10%)	14mo	$159,000	$221	64
91 Biltmore Ct	0.15mi	2/1.5 (+1)	845 (+6%)	21mo	$175,000	$207	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,659
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,064
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94533

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $457	+0% $400	+5% $343	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $323	+0% $400	+5% $477	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $483	-0.5pp $442	base $400	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Clay Bank Rd Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$2,319	$2.78	0d	12	0.87mi
1925 Grande Cir Unit 5 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,595	$1.99	25d	1	1.01mi
1400 Humphrey Dr Suisun City, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,975	$1.84	5d	4	1.04mi
89 Villa Cir Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,900	$1.96	25d	1	1.05mi
1930 Grande Cir #77 Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,750	$1.60	45d	1	1.06mi
1990 Grande Cir Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	895	$2,135	$2.39	4d	15	1.07mi
1970 Grande Cir #19 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1095	$2,200	$2.01	25d	1	1.09mi
1979 Grande Cir Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,049	$2.41	45d	1	1.15mi
1955 Grande Cir Unit L Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,495	$2.83	15d	1	1.18mi
1955 Grande Cir Unit U Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	964	$1,800	$1.87	15d	1	1.18mi
1955 Grande Cir Unit U Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	964	$1,800	$1.87	45d	1	1.18mi
1930 Manor Pl Unit 1 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,150	$1.95	22d	1	1.19mi
1349 Blossom Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1017	$2,250	$2.21	3d	11	1.42mi
2751 Peppertree Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	726	$1,912	$2.63	15d	7	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $165,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    1971 single-wide with expando updated and beautiful:. A must See on your list! Spacious Living Area with a large kitchen . Bright and Comfort Living Room. Large 7ft x 17ft Tuff Shed for storage. Plus a low maintenance yard . Stamped concrete patio for your outdoor entertaining or for your own releaxing spot!

17. 2026-03-19
    price $175,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    1971 single-wide with expando updated and beautiful:. A must See on your list! Spacious Living Area with a large kitchen . Bright and Comfort Living Room. Large 7ft x 17ft Tuff Shed for storage. Plus a low maintenance yard . Stamped concrete patio for your outdoor entertaining or for your own releaxing spot!

18. 2026-01-31
    listed $189,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    1971 single-wide with expando updated and beautiful:. A must See on your list! Spacious Living Area with a large kitchen . Bright and Comfort Living Room. Large 7ft x 17ft Tuff Shed for storage. Plus a low maintenance yard . Stamped concrete patio for your outdoor entertaining or for your own releaxing spot!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $4,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a spacious living area and a well-maintained yard. Repainting the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,805
• Household income: $87,384
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3474.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 23% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 28% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.88%
• Current HPI: 285.4365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $165,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $175,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $189,000 BAREIS