189 Piedmont Orchard Rd · Skyland Estates, VA 22642

$224,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,111 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1850 3.53 ac lot $202/sqft · 37% below area Est $353k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3.5 Acres of Natural Paradise in the Blue Ridge Rarely does a property check so many boxes. This 3.5-acre gem sits on a gentle south-facing slope just 2.5 miles from I-66 — convenient to commuter routes yet completely removed from the noise of modern life, with no mountain roads to navigate. The land itself is the star. Native plants and wildflowers flourish across the property, creating a haven for wildlife in every season. Bird enthusiasts take note — migrating warblers are currently gracing the property, a beautiful reminder of the rich natural ecosystem thriving here. Whether you're an avid birder, a gardener, a hiker, or simply someone who wants to wake up surrounded by nature, this property delivers. A natural cistern/spring provides on-site water, a 2-bedroom septic system is already installed, and a professionally fenced garden enclosure — 8 feet high and set below grade to deter even the most determined wildlife — is ready for immediate use. The gentle southern exposure makes this ideal for homesteading, gardening, or simply soaking in the beauty of the Blue Ridge foothills. History runs deep here. The existing structure dates to the 1800s and was once part of the storied Piedmont Orchard operation — featuring what appears to be original chestnut construction and a stone chimney that has stood for generations, with a later addition rounding out the footprint. There's a reason someone built here over 200 years ago — this land simply has everything. Adventure and amenities are never far away. The Appalachian Trail is just a stone's throw, accessible via private property along Piedmont Orchard Road. Front Royal is just minutes away, and the surrounding region offers an incredible array of wineries, cideries, historic orchards, and the stunning rolling countryside of Warren, Rappahannock, and Fauquier counties — some of Virginia's most beloved and scenic destinations. Whether you envision a new custom home, a weekend retreat, a homestead, or a nature sanctuary, this property offers the infrastructure, location, and natural beauty to make it happen. The existing structure will convey strictly as-is. Hold Harmless Agreement required prior to property access. Please contact the listing agent before scheduling. Property also listed as residential. All studies and inspections at buyer's expense.

Key facts

• 3.5 acres
• South-facing slope
• On-site cistern

Tags

• 3.5 ACRES
• ORIGINAL STONE CHIMNEY
• CHESTNUT CONSTRUCTION
• SOUTH-FACING SLOPE
• 8-FOOT GARDEN ENCLOSURE
• ON-SITE CISTERN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Water supplied by cistern; On-site septic system
• Home design: Detached structure; Metal roof; Stucco exterior; Crawl space foundation; Finished above-grade living area (1,111 sq ft)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Crawl space foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Property located outside city limits; Commuter lots within 5 miles

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Wood-fired heating
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#414 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $224k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,363
• List price: $224,000
• Delta: -36.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $130,533
• Equity at exit: $201,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $377,453
• Equity at exit: $435,183

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5223 John Marshall Hwy Linden, VA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,899	$1.46	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $224,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $229,000 Active 2379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2379 chars)

    3.5 Acres of Natural Paradise in the Blue Ridge Rarely does a property check so many boxes. This 3.5-acre gem sits on a gentle south-facing slope just 2.5 miles from I-66 — convenient to commuter routes yet completely removed from the noise of modern life, with no mountain roads to navigate. The land itself is the star. Native plants and wildflowers flourish across the property, creating a haven for wildlife in every season. Bird enthusiasts take note — migrating warblers are currently gracing the property, a beautiful reminder of the rich natural ecosystem thriving here. Whether you're an avid birder, a gardener, a hiker, or simply someone who wants to wake up surrounded by nature, this property delivers. A natural cistern/spring provides on-site water, a 2-bedroom septic system is already installed, and a professionally fenced garden enclosure — 8 feet high and set below grade to deter even the most determined wildlife — is ready for immediate use. The gentle southern exposure makes this ideal for homesteading, gardening, or simply soaking in the beauty of the Blue Ridge foothills. History runs deep here. The existing structure dates to the 1800s and was once part of the storied Piedmont Orchard operation — featuring what appears to be original chestnut construction and a stone chimney that has stood for generations, with a later addition rounding out the footprint. There's a reason someone built here over 200 years ago — this land simply has everything. Adventure and amenities are never far away. The Appalachian Trail is just a stone's throw, accessible via private property along Piedmont Orchard Road. Front Royal is just minutes away, and the surrounding region offers an incredible array of wineries, cideries, historic orchards, and the stunning rolling countryside of Warren, Rappahannock, and Fauquier counties — some of Virginia's most beloved and scenic destinations. Whether you envision a new custom home, a weekend retreat, a homestead, or a nature sanctuary, this property offers the infrastructure, location, and natural beauty to make it happen. The existing structure will convey strictly as-is. Hold Harmless Agreement required prior to property access. Please contact the listing agent before scheduling. Property also listed as residential. All studies and inspections at buyer's expense.

15. 2026-05-09
    listed $229,000 Active 2703-char remark
16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-29
    listed $250,000 Active
19. 2025-09-29
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
22. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 2016-11-20
    listed $85,000
24. 2016-11-20
    listed $85,000
25. 2016-11-20
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,837 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 270.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$1,786
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$2,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $2,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Skyland Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #17314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+163.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $224,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $224,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-22 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (MLS) $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-20 Listed $85,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-11-20 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $496 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.