3462 Highland Dr · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$448,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1999 0.44 ac lot $241/sqft · 24% below area Est $602k · 25% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will appreciate the stunning long range views & easy care maintenance features of this single level home on a .44 acre lot. 3BR's plus den/4th BR, open floor plan w/wall of windows & numerous dual pane skylights throughout. Easy flow kitchen is open to great room & loaded w/cabinets. Stone faced corner FP adds to the natural charm. Easy care tile flooring & new carpeting throughout. MBR suite has his/hers closets & slider to private patio. Large dual head shower w/unique tile interior, double vanity & small private deck ideal for spa. Front covered deck is 40ft long and perfect for outdoor living. Masonite siding, R30 insulation, circular driveway, RV parking and a 50’ greenbelt on side adds to the privacy.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• New water heater
• Open layout

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• BATHROOM FIXTURES
• OPEN LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-781 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($435k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $449k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,086 (47.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,969
• List price: $448,900
• Delta: -25.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1579 Greentree Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	3mo	$593,000	$311	83
3457 E Carefree Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,827 (-2%)	8mo	$638,800	$350	77
1595 High Country Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (+0%)	12mo	$520,000	$277	70
1537 Georgann Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-6%)	10mo	$525,000	$299	68
1514 Shade Tree Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+2%)	2mo	$630,000	$331	67
1596 High Country Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (-3%)	15mo	$620,000	$343	62
1516 Low Mountain Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (-2%)	16mo	$678,000	$370	58
1466 Low Mountain Trl	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,818 (-2%)	7mo	$570,000	$314	55
1570 Rock Ridge Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-10%)	14mo	$485,000	$291	54
1537 Rocky Top Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,681 (-10%)	8mo	$603,406	$359	54
3480 Roundup Cir	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (+10%)	20mo	$485,000	$237	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-44,686
• Equity at exit: $149,919

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-23,418
• Equity at exit: $196,681

Cash invested: $125,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,354
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,385/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-781

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,369

Max offer price $311,000

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-527	-5% $-654	+0% $-781	+5% $-908	+10% $-1,035
Rent	-10% $-969	-5% $-875	+0% $-781	+5% $-687	+10% $-593
Rate	-1.0pp $-555	-0.5pp $-666	base $-781	+0.5pp $-897	+1.0pp $-1,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,225
• Closing costs: $13,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $448,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $448,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $448,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $448,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $448,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $448,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $448,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $448,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $448,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $469,900 737-char remark
11. 2026-05-06
    listed $479,900 Active 737-char remark
12. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $187,500 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    You will appreciate the stunning long range views & easy care maintenance features of this single level home on a .44 acre lot. 3BR's plus den/4th BR, open floor plan w/wall of windows & numerous dual pane skylights throughout. Easy flow kitchen is open to great room & loaded w/cabinets. Stone faced corner FP adds to the natural charm. Easy care tile flooring & new carpeting throughout. MBR suite has his/hers closets & slider to private patio. Large dual head shower w/unique tile interior, double vanity & small private deck ideal for spa. Front covered deck is 40ft long and perfect for outdoor living. Masonite siding, R30 insulation, circular driveway, RV parking and a 50’ greenbelt on side adds to the privacy.

13. 2014-11-02
    listed $199,900 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    You will appreciate the stunning long range views & easy care maintenance features of this single level home on a .44 acre lot. 3BR's plus den/4th BR, open floor plan w/wall of windows & numerous dual pane skylights throughout. Easy flow kitchen is open to great room & loaded w/cabinets. Stone faced corner FP adds to the natural charm. Easy care tile flooring & new carpeting throughout. MBR suite has his/hers closets & slider to private patio. Large dual head shower w/unique tile interior, double vanity & small private deck ideal for spa. Front covered deck is 40ft long and perfect for outdoor living. Masonite siding, R30 insulation, circular driveway, RV parking and a 50’ greenbelt on side adds to the privacy.

14. 1994-07-29
    soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,578/yr (+$132/mo · 114.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,385
• − Insurance: −$2,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$13,059
• Taxable loss: −$17,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1421.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $448,900 WMMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $454,900 WMMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $469,900 WMMLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $187,500 ARMLS
• 2014-11-02 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 1994-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,385 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.