5766 Pony Express Trl #4 · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$62,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 798 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $52k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right on in. This home is ready for new owner(s). It is located in the best senior park in Pollock Pines. Don't just take my word for it, ask the residence about this Wonderful mountain retreat! Charming 2-bedroom, 2 bath home is freshly painted with new carpeting and upgraded padding. Desirable layout with bedrooms on opposite ends and added privacy with their own bathrooms. Vaulted ceilings in the main living area and plenty of windows for natural light. Beautiful, large, covered deck on a double size treed lot with 2 sheds. (55+ only) Great location. Just off highway 50. Halfway between S. Lake Tahoe and Sacramento. Only minutes to Apple Hill. Compare monthly rents before making the

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Mountain retreat
• New carpeting

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEW CARPETING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COVERED DECK
• DOUBLE SIZE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $630 per month
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease in effect (monthly amount applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking available; No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Propane service; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Water provided by water district; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Built in 1987; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Metal skirting; Shingle/composition roof; Manufacturer: Fleetwood (Make: Westfield)
• Exterior features: Porch awning; Backyard; Close to clubhouse; Storage area and shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 partial bathroom; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Free standing gas range; Laminate countertops; Porch steps with covered, railed deck; Storage area and shed(s) on the property; Unfurnished; Pets allowed with number and size limits
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,005 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.36%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,870
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5840 Pony Express Trl #24	0.12mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	6mo	$20,000	$26	79
5881 Pony Express Trl #27	0.28mi	2/1.0	820 (+3%)	6mo	$30,000	$37	74
5840 Pony Express Trl #49	0.19mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	18mo	$35,000	$42	67
5766 Pony Express Trl #19	0.06mi	2/1.0	750 (-6%)	22mo	$62,000	$83	65
5840 Pony Express Trl #7	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	725 (-9%)	9mo	$46,950	$65	63
5840 Pony Express Trl #19	0.12mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	18mo	$63,000	$87	61
6008 Pony Express Trl #12	0.54mi	2/1.0	707 (-11%)	11mo	$68,000	$96	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $61,224
• Equity at exit: $9,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $145,258
• Equity at exit: $5,443

Cash invested: $17,626 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $210/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $62,950

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,738
• Closing costs: $1,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5731 Pony Express Trl Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	1.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	2d	1	0.11mi
5900 Pony Express Trl Unit 14 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	2d	1	0.32mi
6001 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,300	$3.15	2d	1	0.56mi
6216 Spruce Ave Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,750	$1.75	2d	1	1.06mi
2988 Bonanza St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	4d	1	1.08mi
2988 Bonanza St Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	4d	1	1.08mi
2893 Polaris St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,100	$2.41	2d	1	1.36mi
6396 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,950 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,950 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,950 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,950 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,950 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,950 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,950 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,950 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $62,950 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,950 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,950 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,950 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,950 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $210 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 127.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,526
• − Property taxes: −$210
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$1,831
• Taxable income: $13,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,168
• After-tax cash flow: $10,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $210 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.