622 Golf Crest Ln · Davenport, FL 33837

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

YOU OWN THE LAND!! GATED COMMUNITY CLOSE TO ADVENT HOSPITAL, DOCTORS, SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS. 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH 1986 MOBILE HOME CLOSE TO CLUBHOUSE. UPDATED CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL ACCESS, BILLIARD TABLE, LIBRARY. PRIVACY FENCE IN REAR, STONE INSTEAD OF GRASS FOR EASY LOT CARE IN BACK YARD. SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE. PROPANE GAS FOR 2ND BEDROOM HEAT.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Owning your own land
• Access to clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ACCESS TO POOL
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE
• OWNING YOUR OWN LAND
• SHORT DRIVE TO ATTRACTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.37%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $28,123
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $65,702
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $762	-5% $739	+0% $716	+5% $694	+10% $671
Rent	-10% $594	-5% $655	+0% $716	+5% $777	+10% $838
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $737	base $716	+0.5pp $696	+1.0pp $675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $80,000 Active
15. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2022-01-14
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    YOU OWN THE LAND!! GATED COMMUNITY CLOSE TO ADVENT HOSPITAL, DOCTORS, SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS. 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH 1986 MOBILE HOME CLOSE TO CLUBHOUSE. UPDATED CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL ACCESS, BILLIARD TABLE, LIBRARY. PRIVACY FENCE IN REAR, STONE INSTEAD OF GRASS FOR EASY LOT CARE IN BACK YARD. SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE. PROPANE GAS FOR 2ND BEDROOM HEAT.

17. 2021-12-27
    status Pending 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    YOU OWN THE LAND!! GATED COMMUNITY CLOSE TO ADVENT HOSPITAL, DOCTORS, SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS. 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH 1986 MOBILE HOME CLOSE TO CLUBHOUSE. UPDATED CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL ACCESS, BILLIARD TABLE, LIBRARY. PRIVACY FENCE IN REAR, STONE INSTEAD OF GRASS FOR EASY LOT CARE IN BACK YARD. SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE. PROPANE GAS FOR 2ND BEDROOM HEAT.

18. 2021-12-17
    listed $62,500 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    YOU OWN THE LAND!! GATED COMMUNITY CLOSE TO ADVENT HOSPITAL, DOCTORS, SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS. 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH 1986 MOBILE HOME CLOSE TO CLUBHOUSE. UPDATED CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL ACCESS, BILLIARD TABLE, LIBRARY. PRIVACY FENCE IN REAR, STONE INSTEAD OF GRASS FOR EASY LOT CARE IN BACK YARD. SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE. PROPANE GAS FOR 2ND BEDROOM HEAT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,860
• After-tax cash flow: $6,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davenport, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-14 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Listed $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · -52.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.