5411 Pond View Dr · Pace, FL 32570

$198,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1994 9,583 sqft lot Est $244k · 19% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LAKE FRONT PROPERTY!! Conveniently located to all shopping, Schools and medical facilities. Needs a little TLC but live in the house and the attached garage has been converted to an apartment for extra income 2nd bedroom. Nice Sunroom overlooking Hayes Lake.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Converted garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers with copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: One-story frame home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Interior and exterior handicap provisions
• Construction: Composition roof; Off-grade foundation; Frame construction; Building area about 1,357 square feet
• Exterior features: Porch; Has waterfront (natural lake); Interior lot; Paved roads (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.75' x 13.75')
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Wall/window unit(s); Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Storage; Baseboards; Ceiling fans; Sun room; Double pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 24650% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,949 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,260
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5476 Oakshire Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-0%)	5mo	$250,000	$185	63
5559 Jones St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (+11%)	6mo	$255,000	$169	62
5437 Camille Gardens Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,324 (-2%)	8mo	$230,000	$174	62
5541 Berryhill Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-5%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	62
5457 Windham Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+4%)	6mo	$280,000	$199	57
5402 Douglas St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,193 (-12%)	3mo	$194,000	$163	46
5354 Windham Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$180	41
5524 Windham Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (-11%)	15mo	$200,000	$166	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,316
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,186
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5432 Homestead Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,700	$1.00	13d	1	0.63mi
5837 Berryhill Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,950	$1.72	21d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $198,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 259-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $198,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-31.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $198,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Rental Removed $800 PARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed for Rent $800 PARMLS
• 2005-09-30 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2005-06-16 Listed $287,500 PARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $803 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.