1138 N Fern Ave · Broken Arrow, OK 74012

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1966 9,017 sqft lot Est $235k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This three bedroom two full baths home has been lovingly and well-maintained for generations. Both bathrooms have been recently, beautifully updated. The roof and gutters were replaced in 2020. The front room can be used as an office, den or converted into a fourth bedroom. The backyard is well shaded and has a shed for extra storage. This one will make a perfect first or forever home!

Key facts

• Extra storage shed
• Updated bathrooms
• Replaced roof

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• REPLACED ROOF
• WELL SHADED BACKYARD
• EXTRA STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include gutters and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built with brick, vinyl siding, and wood frame; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Landscaping; Rain gutters; Covered patio and porch; Porch; Shed(s); Chain link full fencing; Mature trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with pantry; Built-in range; Built-in oven; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with private bath and walk-in closet (First floor); Additional bedrooms (First floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood veneer
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Hall bath (Full, First floor); Master bath with shower only (First floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Laminate counters; Ceiling fan(s); Gas range connection; Gas oven connection; Aluminum frame and vinyl windows; Insulated doors; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (Inside, First floor); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($831/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowhead Es (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #479 of 845 statewide, top 63%, 411 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah Ms (math 12% / reading 15%, grade F, #252 of 345 statewide, top 74%, 720 students, 0% FRL); Broken Arrow Hs (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #120 of 447 statewide, top 27%, 4,589 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,861 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1138 N Fern Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$141	98
1118 N Hickory Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,371 (-3%)	2mo	$246,000	$179	82
1308 N Hickory Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+0%)	7mo	$92,000	$65	80
1101 N Hickory Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-4%)	5mo	$247,000	$182	80
1316 N Gum Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+6%)	4mo	$249,000	$166	74
1109 N Hickory Pl	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,243 (-12%)	2mo	$225,000	$181	70
1142 N Hickory Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-13%)	6mo	$164,900	$133	68
727 N Ash Ave	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,401 (-1%)	2mo	$255,000	$182	65
904 W Norman St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+11%)	4mo	$200,000	$127	63
804 N Main St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-5%)	3mo	$225,000	$167	61
1601 N Hickory Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+10%)	7mo	$255,000	$164	60
1212 N Juniper Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+13%)	1mo	$157,000	$98	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,231
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,125
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74012

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,505/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $133	+0% $69	+5% $6	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-4	+0% $69	+5% $143	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $126	base $69	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 N Birch Ave Broken Arrow, OK	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,128	$0.95	23d	1	0.42mi
921 W Midway St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,430	$1.39	17d	1	0.52mi
126 E Midway St Unit 122 Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,000	$1.47	13d	1	0.65mi
221 W Detroit St Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.5	1829	$2,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.79mi
513 W Dallas St Unit A Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,850	$1.40	5d	1	1.03mi
513 W Dallas St Unit B Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,850	$1.36	25d	1	1.03mi
1800 W Albany Dr Broken Arrow, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,295	$2.60	25d	1	1.07mi
2217 N 7th St Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.0	1618	$1,850	$1.14	5d	1	1.11mi
511 W Fort Worth St Unit 511 Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,650	$1.63	17d	1	1.16mi
507 W Fort Worth St Unit 507 Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,850	$1.76	17d	1	1.16mi
2700 N 7th St Broken Arrow, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,594	$1.62	5d	12	1.26mi
301 N 10th St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,695	$1.39	12d	1	1.32mi
606 N Village Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	1.5	1434	$1,528	$1.07	3d	1	1.32mi
322 S 6th St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	25d	1	1.39mi
1101 W Houston St Broken Arrow, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,170	$1.46	13d	10	1.40mi
3301 N Elm Ave Broken Arrow, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,490	$1.48	3d	30	1.41mi
3401 N Elm Ave Broken Arrow, OK	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,193	$2.31	4d	11	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   price $225,000
3. 2026-01-07
   status Active
4. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-02
   listed $233,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,505
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $1,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broken Arrow, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 65,060
• Household income: $81,456
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1378.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Asian 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.42%
• Current HPI: 214.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $225,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-15 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-02 Listed $233,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,505 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.