1038 Spanish Oak Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2005 9,147 sqft lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $262k · 6% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1038 Spanish Oaks Drive in Live Oak! This cute split floor plan has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Walk in to find a large living room that opens up to the breakfast area and kitchen. The kitchen hosts lots of counterspace and extra cabinets. Laminate wood floors run throughout the entire house so there is no carpet. Zoned for USDA 100% financing and Brandon School District! Call your favorite Realtor today.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Split floor plan
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $200 (management included)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fiber to the house
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Three-tab asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Vinyl windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,934 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,633
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -6.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Willow Run	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-0%)	0mo	$219,900	$164	79
1108 Spanish Oak Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+1%)	2mo	$235,000	$173	72
577 Oak Ridge Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+0%)	2mo	$240,000	$178	72
220 White Oak Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+5%)	1mo	$242,300	$172	71
628 Oak Ridge Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+2%)	3mo	$249,900	$183	63
242 Trace Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-2%)	3mo	$250,900	$190	62
240 Trace Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-2%)	3mo	$239,900	$182	60
251 Trace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-2%)	2mo	$249,900	$190	58
606 Cedar Pl	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+11%)	3mo	$252,900	$169	41
104 Oak Grove Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,513 (+13%)	2mo	$248,000	$164	41
239 Trace Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+11%)	3mo	$250,900	$168	40
250 Trace Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+11%)	2mo	$251,900	$168	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,667
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,792
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $957/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $228,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-24	+0% $-94	+5% $-163	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-163	+0% $-94	+5% $-24	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-31	base $-94	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Red Oak Cv Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,031	$1.44	15d	1	0.33mi
103 Cedar Ridge Blvd Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,000	$0.56	23d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $245,000 Active 640-char remark
2. 2022-06-16
   soldstatus
3. 2022-06-15
   soldstatus Closed 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Welcome to 1038 Spanish Oaks Drive in Live Oak! This cute split floor plan has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Walk in to find a large living room that opens up to the breakfast area and kitchen. The kitchen hosts lots of counterspace and extra cabinets. Laminate wood floors run throughout the entire house so there is no carpet. Zoned for USDA 100% financing and Brandon School District! Call your favorite Realtor today.

4. 2022-05-11
   status Pending 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Welcome to 1038 Spanish Oaks Drive in Live Oak! This cute split floor plan has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Walk in to find a large living room that opens up to the breakfast area and kitchen. The kitchen hosts lots of counterspace and extra cabinets. Laminate wood floors run throughout the entire house so there is no carpet. Zoned for USDA 100% financing and Brandon School District! Call your favorite Realtor today.

5. 2022-05-07
   price $198,000 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Welcome to 1038 Spanish Oaks Drive in Live Oak! This cute split floor plan has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Walk in to find a large living room that opens up to the breakfast area and kitchen. The kitchen hosts lots of counterspace and extra cabinets. Laminate wood floors run throughout the entire house so there is no carpet. Zoned for USDA 100% financing and Brandon School District! Call your favorite Realtor today.

6. 2022-05-06
   listed $198,500 Active 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Welcome to 1038 Spanish Oaks Drive in Live Oak! This cute split floor plan has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Walk in to find a large living room that opens up to the breakfast area and kitchen. The kitchen hosts lots of counterspace and extra cabinets. Laminate wood floors run throughout the entire house so there is no carpet. Zoned for USDA 100% financing and Brandon School District! Call your favorite Realtor today.

7. 2018-02-23
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET. DEAL FELL THROUGH. Beautiful starter home in Live Oaks Subdivision. Priced to sale. 3 bedrooms with 2 bull baths, eat-in kitchen that connects to large family room. Master bedroom has a trey ceiling that adds a wonderful dimension to space. Home has privacy fence for those days you want to seat outside and enjoy a good book on back patio. Call your agent for a private showing of this priced to sale home.

8. 2017-12-19
   listed $117,500

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET. DEAL FELL THROUGH. Beautiful starter home in Live Oaks Subdivision. Priced to sale. 3 bedrooms with 2 bull baths, eat-in kitchen that connects to large family room. Master bedroom has a trey ceiling that adds a wonderful dimension to space. Home has privacy fence for those days you want to seat outside and enjoy a good book on back patio. Call your agent for a private showing of this priced to sale home.

9. 2005-10-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$978/yr (+$82/mo · 102.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$957
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+108.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-11 Listed $245,000 MLSU
• 2022-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-05-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-05-07 Price Changed $198,000 MLSU
• 2022-05-06 Listed $198,500 MLSU
• 2018-02-23 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-12-19 Listed $117,500 MLSU
• 2005-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $957 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.