2902 Sullivan Ave · St. Louis, MO 63107

$40,000

None bd · 2.0 ba · 2,658 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1908 4,647 sqft lot Est $77k · 48% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Turn This Historic STL Duplex Into the Block’s Showpiece. Prime Location, Solid Start — Finish the Vision at 2902 Sullivan, a corner duplex (easily converts to a single family) in the historic Greater Ville neighborhood near NGA & Griot Museum. Easy access to I-70 & I-55. Unit 1: 2 bed/1 bath. Unit 2: 3 bed/1 bath. Full rehab needed, but major updates completed: new plumbing main, new water line, tuckpointing, newer roof & fascia. Excellent opportunity for resale or rental. Inspections are for the buyer's knowledge only. Seller to do no repairs or inspections. Utilities are off.

Key facts

• Easy access to i-70
• New water line
• Corner duplex

Tags

• HISTORIC DUPLEX
• CORNER DUPLEX
• EASY ACCESS TO I-70
• EASY ACCESS TO I-55
• NEW PLUMBING MAIN
• NEW WATER LINE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 55.4% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $701 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 175.29%
• DSCR: 8.80
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,082
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 Sullivan Ave	0.00mi	—/—	2,658 (0%)	1mo	$40,000	$15	99
2926 Dodier	0.14mi	—/—	2,526 (-5%)	11mo	$50,000	$20	76
3800 Greer Ave #2	0.45mi	5/2.0	2,726 (+3%)	14mo	$79,900	$29	63
3843 Saint Ferdinand Ave	0.72mi	6/2.0	2,788 (+5%)	1mo	$325,000	$117	58
3949 Palm St	0.70mi	7/2.0	2,620 (-1%)	9mo	$55,000	$21	58
3847 Greer Ave	0.53mi	7/2.0	2,652 (-0%)	23mo	$195,000	$74	56
3939 Greer Ave	0.66mi	—/—	2,756 (+4%)	10mo	$89,900	$33	54
4115 N Florissant Ave	0.68mi	—/—	2,904 (+9%)	3mo	$25,000	$9	50
3965 Ashland Ave	0.71mi	12/4.0	2,678 (+1%)	10mo	$134,900	$50	49
3840 Saint Louis Ave	0.57mi	5/3.0	2,880 (+8%)	11mo	$55,000	$19	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.92×
• Total profit: $99,869
• Equity at exit: $8,232

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.92×
• Total profit: $223,145
• Equity at exit: $7,481

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $1,636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,659	-5% $1,647	+0% $1,636	+5% $1,625	+10% $1,613
Rent	-10% $1,447	-5% $1,542	+0% $1,636	+5% $1,730	+10% $1,825
Rate	-1.0pp $1,656	-0.5pp $1,646	base $1,636	+0.5pp $1,626	+1.0pp $1,615

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,195
1× unit	3	1	$1,195
Total (2 units)			$2,389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Angelrodt St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	3049	$1,000	$0.33	18d	1	0.84mi
3127 Clay Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	3536	$950	$0.27	44d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Turn This Historic STL Duplex Into the Block’s Showpiece. Prime Location, Solid Start — Finish the Vision at 2902 Sullivan, a corner duplex (easily converts to a single family) in the historic Greater Ville neighborhood near NGA & Griot Museum. Easy access to I-70 & I-55. Unit 1: 2 bed/1 bath. Unit 2: 3 bed/1 bath. Full rehab needed, but major updates completed: new plumbing main, new water line, tuckpointing, newer roof & fascia. Excellent opportunity for resale or rental. Inspections are for the buyer's knowledge only. Seller to do no repairs or inspections. Utilities are off.

2. 2026-01-07
   price $40,000

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Turn This Historic STL Duplex Into the Block’s Showpiece. Prime Location, Solid Start — Finish the Vision at 2902 Sullivan, a corner duplex (easily converts to a single family) in the historic Greater Ville neighborhood near NGA & Griot Museum. Easy access to I-70 & I-55. Unit 1: 2 bed/1 bath. Unit 2: 3 bed/1 bath. Full rehab needed, but major updates completed: new plumbing main, new water line, tuckpointing, newer roof & fascia. Excellent opportunity for resale or rental. Inspections are for the buyer's knowledge only. Seller to do no repairs or inspections. Utilities are off.

3. 2026-01-07
   price $40,000 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Turn This Historic STL Duplex Into the Block’s Showpiece. Prime Location, Solid Start — Finish the Vision at 2902 Sullivan, a corner duplex (easily converts to a single family) in the historic Greater Ville neighborhood near NGA & Griot Museum. Easy access to I-70 & I-55. Unit 1: 2 bed/1 bath. Unit 2: 3 bed/1 bath. Full rehab needed, but major updates completed: new plumbing main, new water line, tuckpointing, newer roof & fascia. Excellent opportunity for resale or rental. Inspections are for the buyer's knowledge only. Seller to do no repairs or inspections. Utilities are off.

4. 2025-08-27
   listed $50,000 Active 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Turn This Historic STL Duplex Into the Block’s Showpiece. Prime Location, Solid Start — Finish the Vision at 2902 Sullivan, a corner duplex (easily converts to a single family) in the historic Greater Ville neighborhood near NGA & Griot Museum. Easy access to I-70 & I-55. Unit 1: 2 bed/1 bath. Unit 2: 3 bed/1 bath. Full rehab needed, but major updates completed: new plumbing main, new water line, tuckpointing, newer roof & fascia. Excellent opportunity for resale or rental. Inspections are for the buyer's knowledge only. Seller to do no repairs or inspections. Utilities are off.

5. 2025-08-26
   listed $50,000 Active
6. 2023-08-18
   listed $45,000 Active
7. 1992-04-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$7/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $20,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,843
• After-tax cash flow: $14,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-18 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $298 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.