1412 S 1st St #21 · Turlock, CA 95380

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 688 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1412 S 1st S in Turlock! This Beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bathoom home features a sleek, brand-new shower and fresh interior touches. Step outside to your private oasis featuring newly installed turf- perfect for low-maintenance lounging. Just a few minutes from Golden State Highway. Clean, contempary, and ready for you to call it HOME!

Key facts

• Newly installed turf
• Private oasis
• Brand-new shower

Tags

• NEWLY INSTALLED TURF
• PRIVATE OASIS
• BRAND-NEW SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Stanislaus County, Turlock, CA (postal code 95380); Address: 1412 S 1st St #21; Cross street: Golf Rd; Directions: S Golden State to Golf Rd to 1st St; Not a senior community
• Financial info: Land lease: No (note: a land lease amount field is present but land lease is marked No)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single-wide; Built in 2023
• Construction: Manufacturer: Champion; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counter
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Stone countertops; Living room with flexible/other features; Dining space in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (220V outlet in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cunningham Elementary (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,463 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 572 students, 76% FRL); Turlock Junior High (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 1,257 students, 62% FRL); Turlock High (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 2,475 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.16%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,074
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $29,315
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $453	+0% $415	+5% $377	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $356	+0% $415	+5% $474	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $443	base $415	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 East Ave Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,115	$1.80	15d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $4,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is move-in ready with good curb appeal and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace HVAC filters — Improves air quality and can attract tenants or buyers.
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace HVAC filters — Improves air quality and can attract tenants or buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B