16 Calle Popocatepetl · Minkler, CA 22634

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 7,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 732 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition 7,000 sqft lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las american premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area. Approximately 400-meter lot.

Key facts

• Outside patio
• Covered carport
• Fully gated home

Tags

• FULLY GATED HOME
• COVERED CARPORT
• OUTSIDE PATIO
• QUIET AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-108/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,388 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanger Unified (town): math 22% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #216 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary (385 students, 61% FRL); Washington Academic Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,462 students, 75% FRL); Sanger High (math 24% / reading 66%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,734 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sanger Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 732 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,074 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 732 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,514
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $63,205
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22634

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $148,693

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $43	+0% $-9	+5% $-61	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-60	+0% $-9	+5% $42	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $29	base $-9	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 732 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 729 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 728 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 727 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 726 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 724 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 723 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 721 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 720 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 719 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 718 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 715 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 714 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 713 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 712 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 711 DOM
17. 2025-07-10
    status Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las american premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area. Approximately 400-meter lot.

18. 2024-11-02
    price $200,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las american premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area. Approximately 400-meter lot.

19. 2024-10-26
    price $150,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las american premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area. Approximately 400-meter lot.

20. 2024-10-25
    price $150,000 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las American premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area.

21. 2024-06-19
    listed $300,000 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las American premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area.

22. 2024-06-14
    listed $300,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Take a look at this cozy fully gated home that feature 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, covered carport and outside patio. Located in Tijuana Baja California, close to the Federal HWY1, malls, shopping center, Las american premium outlets, gas stations, restaurants, coffee shops, 4.2 miles to Border. Quiet and low traffic area. Approximately 400-meter lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 62 unhealthy d/yr today · 68 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior paint and patio tiles, to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior walls — Peeling paint
• Major patio tiles — Worn-out tiles

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace patio tiles — Improves durability and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior walls · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
patio tiles · Worn-out tiles	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace patio tiles — Improves durability and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanger Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635250
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,180
• Composite: 36.67/100
• National rank: #4608
• State rank: #216 of 517 in CA

Livability — Minkler

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1388
• US rank: #27290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-10 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $200,000 GEMLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $150,000 GEMLS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $300,000 GEMLS