208 S Caves · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$50,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

0.48 ac lot $25/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedroom, 2 Bath home to be moved.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: N/A

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Pre-owned property
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Front faces east

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14 x 16)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ceiling fan (12 x 13); Bedroom 2 (12 x 13); Bedroom 3 (12 x 13); Bedroom 4 (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (8 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One living area; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $965 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Three Rivers Jr/Sr H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.73%
• DSCR: 4.68
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,048
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -71.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 E Blair St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-14%)	3mo	$199,900	$116	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $69,723
• Equity at exit: $24,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.39×
• Total profit: $159,466
• Equity at exit: $40,183

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,000	-5% $982	+0% $965	+5% $948	+10% $931
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $900	+0% $965	+5% $1,031	+10% $1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $990	-0.5pp $978	base $965	+0.5pp $952	+1.0pp $939

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Price Change 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $50,000 Price Change 26 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $75,000 New 35-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,753
• After-tax cash flow: $8,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $50,000 LERA
• 2026-05-06 Listed $75,000 LERA

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,141 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.