861653 Worthington Dr · Yulee, FL 32097

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2005 0.57 ac lot Est $405k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN ready home located in the highly desirable Page Hill community located in the heart of the growing town of Yulee. Close to great shopping, restaurants, movie theater and quick access to the white sand beaches of Amelia Island and I-95. This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has just been updated with NEW luxury vinyl plank flooring through out the common areas, tile in the kitchen and baths as well as new carpet in the master bedroom. Fresh paint on the interior, NEW sliding glass door, and a new roof in 2018. Located on a large lot with a fenced back yard with plenty of room to park your toys. Book your private showing today!

Key facts

• Private well
• Septic
• 0.57 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC
• WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM
• IRRIGATIONS IN FRONT YARD
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• EXTRA LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community has an association; Association: Cornerstone PM Svc; Association fee $216 annually; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Used as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.57 acres; Accessible bedroom; Accessible hallways

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; In-law floorplan; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-751 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Yulee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yulee Primary School (658 students, 51% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; list at $400k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,300 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.04%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $405,076
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
861389 Worthington Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,762 (+4%)	4mo	$387,000	$220	78
861460 Worthington Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (+6%)	19mo	$425,000	$235	60
86132 Worthington Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-4%)	6mo	$387,000	$238	58
86165 Debbie Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-10%)	11mo	$392,000	$255	38
86252 Melissa Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-14%)	12mo	$375,000	$255	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $169,597
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $536,252
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,183

Max offer price $267,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-524	-5% $-637	+0% $-751	+5% $-864	+10% $-977
Rent	-10% $-927	-5% $-839	+0% $-751	+5% $-662	+10% $-574
Rate	-1.0pp $-549	-0.5pp $-649	base $-751	+0.5pp $-854	+1.0pp $-960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96043 Starlight Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,099	$1.40	25d	1	1.44mi
86131 Hopper Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,650	$0.99	25d	1	1.47mi
96045 Tidal Bay Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,809	$1.46	25d	1	1.48mi
86040 Hopper Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,650	$0.99	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $415,000 Active
17. 2020-01-13
    soldstatus $237,000
18. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus $237,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    MOVE-IN ready home located in the highly desirable Page Hill community located in the heart of the growing town of Yulee. Close to great shopping, restaurants, movie theater and quick access to the white sand beaches of Amelia Island and I-95. This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has just been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring through out the common areas, tile in the kitchen and baths as well as new carpet in the master bedroom. Fresh paint on the interior, new sliding glass door, and a new roof in 2018. Located on a large lot with a fenced back yard with plenty of room to park your toys. Book your private showing today!

19. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus $237,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    MOVE-IN ready home located in the highly desirable Page Hill community located in the heart of the growing town of Yulee. Close to great shopping, restaurants, movie theater and quick access to the white sand beaches of Amelia Island and I-95. This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has just been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring through out the common areas, tile in the kitchen and baths as well as new carpet in the master bedroom. Fresh paint on the interior, new sliding glass door, and a new roof in 2018. Located on a large lot with a fenced back yard with plenty of room to park your toys. Book your private showing today!

20. 2019-08-19
    listed $246,900 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    MOVE-IN ready home located in the highly desirable Page Hill community located in the heart of the growing town of Yulee. Close to great shopping, restaurants, movie theater and quick access to the white sand beaches of Amelia Island and I-95. This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has just been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring through out the common areas, tile in the kitchen and baths as well as new carpet in the master bedroom. Fresh paint on the interior, new sliding glass door, and a new roof in 2018. Located on a large lot with a fenced back yard with plenty of room to park your toys. Book your private showing today!

21. 2019-08-19
    listed $246,900 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    MOVE-IN ready home located in the highly desirable Page Hill community located in the heart of the growing town of Yulee. Close to great shopping, restaurants, movie theater and quick access to the white sand beaches of Amelia Island and I-95. This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has just been updated with luxury vinyl plank flooring through out the common areas, tile in the kitchen and baths as well as new carpet in the master bedroom. Fresh paint on the interior, new sliding glass door, and a new roof in 2018. Located on a large lot with a fenced back yard with plenty of room to park your toys. Book your private showing today!

22. 2014-08-12
    soldstatus $150,000
23. 2014-08-12
    soldstatus $150,000
24. 2014-05-01
    listed $149,900
25. 2014-04-30
    listed $149,900
26. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus $202,000
27. 2005-01-10
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$16,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,969
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+422.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $415,000 realMLS
• 2020-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $237,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-09 Sold (MLS) $237,000 AINCAR
• 2020-01-09 Sold (MLS) $237,000 realMLS
• 2019-08-19 Listed $246,900 AINCAR
• 2019-08-19 Listed $246,900 realMLS
• 2014-08-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 AINCAR
• 2014-08-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 realMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $149,900 realMLS
• 2014-04-30 Listed $149,900 AINCAR
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.