16659 Lilac St · Detroit, MI 48221

$43,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1927 3,049 sqft lot Est $66k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Updated interior
• 3,049 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• REVITALIZED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary Mcleod Bethune Elementarymiddle School (706 students, 91% FRL); Mumford High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 889 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools at 89% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,195 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.17%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16659 Lilac St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	95
16820 Santa Rosa Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-6%)	0mo	$10,000	$8	79
16688 Turner St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+9%)	6mo	$50,000	$35	76
16273 Woodingham Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-7%)	7mo	$10,000	$8	73
16890 Monica St	0.21mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,359 (+5%)	7mo	$165,000	$121	71
17510 Monica St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,331 (+3%)	7mo	$215,000	$162	66
15379 Woodingham Dr	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+0%)	4mo	$7,000	$5	57
17600 Santa Barbara Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,446 (+12%)	2mo	$145,000	$100	54
15703 Northlawn St	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+5%)	5mo	$70,000	$51	52
17160 Wisconsin St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,438 (+11%)	5mo	$207,000	$144	50
15863 Belden St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-11%)	1mo	$18,600	$16	48
17421 Quincy St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+14%)	2mo	$234,500	$159	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $39,661
• Equity at exit: $6,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.94×
• Total profit: $96,680
• Equity at exit: $3,761

Cash invested: $12,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,726/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $494

Max offer price $43,500

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $735	+0% $722	+5% $710	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $667	+0% $722	+5% $778	+10% $834
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $733	base $722	+0.5pp $711	+1.0pp $700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,875
• Closing costs: $1,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	18d	1	0.05mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	19d	1	0.20mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	45d	1	0.23mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	26d	1	0.24mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	19d	1	0.24mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	20d	1	0.27mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	45d	1	0.37mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	7d	1	0.41mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	22d	1	0.43mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	26d	1	0.43mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	45d	1	0.44mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	45d	1	0.49mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.51mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.51mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	45d	1	0.54mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	26d	1	0.54mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	45d	1	0.54mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	5d	1	0.57mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	45d	1	0.58mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	20d	1	0.59mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	26d	1	0.62mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	45d	1	0.64mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	7d	1	0.73mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	26d	1	0.73mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	19d	1	0.75mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	22d	1	0.78mi
15765 Washburn St Unit 15767 Washburn Upper Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	0d	1	0.91mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	18d	1	0.93mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	45d	1	0.97mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	21d	1	0.97mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	7d	1	1.06mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	1.06mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	1.10mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	45d	1	1.11mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	7d	1	1.12mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.12mi
19031 Livernois Unit F Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,135	$1.94	45d	1	1.15mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	45d	1	1.18mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	7d	1	1.21mi
16927 Inverness St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	897	$1,650	$1.84	18d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

3. 2026-04-15
   price $43,500 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

4. 2026-04-15
   price $43,500

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

5. 2026-03-10
   historical
6. 2026-03-10
   historical
7. 2026-03-06
   listed $44,900 Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

8. 2026-03-06
   listed $44,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Amazing opportunity on this Detroit home. Beyond the inviting covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or community connection lies a thoughtfully updated interior featuring two bathrooms and a layout designed for effortless family living. Perfectly positioned near the historic Mary Grove College and the bustling Bagley District, this home places you at the heart of a revitalized community. Cash only. Sold as is. Buyer and agent to verify all information.

9. 2024-07-30
   status Active
10. 2024-07-30
    status Active
11. 2024-07-20
    status Pending
12. 2024-07-20
    status Pending
13. 2024-05-31
    listed $130,000 Active
14. 2024-05-31
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
16. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
17. 2022-04-01
    status Pending
18. 2022-04-01
    status Pending
19. 2022-03-22
    listed $110,000 Active
20. 2022-03-22
    listed $110,000 Active
21. 2022-03-22
    historical $110,000
22. 2022-03-22
    historical $110,000
23. 2009-10-15
    soldstatus $2,500
24. 2009-10-15
    soldstatus $2,500
25. 2009-09-15
    historical
26. 2009-07-02
    listed $3,500
27. 2009-07-02
    listed $3,500
28. 2005-06-21
    soldstatus $116,000
29. 2004-04-09
    soldstatus $22,000
30. 2004-01-26
    listed $31,900
31. 2002-06-10
    soldstatus $53,000
32. 2002-05-10
    soldstatus $19,500
33. 2002-01-29
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,726 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,726 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,437
• − Property taxes: −$1,726
• − Insurance: −$218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$1,265
• Taxable income: $8,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,052
• After-tax cash flow: $6,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+443.8% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $43,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $43,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-06 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-31 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-19 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-19 Sold (MLS) $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-04-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-22 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-22 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-22 Coming Soon $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-22 Coming Soon $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-10-15 Sold (MLS) $2,500 REALCOMP
• 2009-10-15 Sold (MLS) $2,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-07-02 Listed $3,500 REALCOMP
• 2009-07-02 Listed $3,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-09 Sold (MLS) $22,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-01-26 Listed $31,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 2002-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,726 · -39.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.