Atlantis Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$247,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 441 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops
• Patio

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $247,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,363.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 978 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,760 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,363
• List price: $247,990
• Delta: -8.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14608 Sage Bloom Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$212,990	$177	95
14521 Bonellis Pass	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$232,291	$194	85
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	3mo	$269,900	$207	75
14504 Wahlbergs Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	1mo	$272,900	$209	74
18308 Stellers Sea St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	5mo	$229,900	$214	73
14600 Wahlbergs Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	6mo	$292,900	$224	72
18232 Stellers Sea St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	9mo	$257,900	$240	71
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$252,900	$235	71
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	5mo	$249,900	$232	70
18404 Stellers Sea St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	5mo	$277,900	$258	70
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	4mo	$255,900	$238	69
248 Heritage Mill Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-10%)	6mo	$232,040	$216	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $130,646
• Equity at exit: $244,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $398,992
• Equity at exit: $527,198

Cash invested: $75,982 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $246,865 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 978
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,423
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,070/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,374

Max offer price $231,784

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-180	+0% $-274	+5% $-367	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-354	+0% $-274	+5% $-193	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-205	base $-274	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,841
• Closing costs: $8,141
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	68d	1	0.13mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	52d	1	0.15mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	60d	1	0.20mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	9d	1	0.67mi
109 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,690	$1.27	21d	1	0.70mi
116 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,750	$1.28	18d	1	0.78mi
12201 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.92mi
158 Daylily Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	9d	1	0.96mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	93d	1	1.02mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,699	$1.72	9d	11	1.14mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	64d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $247,990 Active 441 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $247,990 Active 439 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $247,990 Active 438 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $247,990 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $246,990 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $246,990 Active 433 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $246,990 Active 431 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $246,990 Active 430 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $246,990 Active 428 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 426 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 425 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 424 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $246,990 Active 423 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $246,990 Active 422 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $246,990 Active 420 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $246,990 Active 419 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $246,990 Active 418 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $246,990 Active 417 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $246,990 Active 416 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 415 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 414 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $246,990 Active 413 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $246,990 Active 412 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $246,990 Active 411 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $246,990 Active 409 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $246,990 Active 408 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $246,990 Active 407 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 405 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $246,990 Active 404 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 403 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,990 Active 402 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 401 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 400 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 399 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 398 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 396 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 394 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 393 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 390 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 389 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 388 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 387 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,990 Active 385 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,990 Active 381 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 380 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 379 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 376 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 375 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 374 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 373 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,201
• − Property taxes: −$4,070
• − Insurance: −$1,357
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$7,894
• Taxable loss: −$8,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,940
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or tenant looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $235,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $270,990 Zillow