Atlantis Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$245,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops
• Patio

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,219.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,012 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,219
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: -9.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14625 Bonellis Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$243,945	$203	86
14521 Bonellis Pass	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$232,291	$194	86
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	76
18308 Stellers Sea St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$229,900	$214	74
14600 Wahlbergs Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	4mo	$292,900	$224	73
18232 Stellers Sea St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	8mo	$257,900	$240	72
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	2mo	$252,900	$235	72
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	72
18404 Stellers Sea St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	4mo	$277,900	$258	72
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	2mo	$255,900	$238	70
248 Heritage Mill Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-10%)	5mo	$232,040	$216	48
228 Lavender Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+9%)	11mo	$277,410	$212	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $134,290
• Equity at exit: $244,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $406,823
• Equity at exit: $526,918

Cash invested: $75,941 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,422
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,068/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $240,074

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-122	+0% $-215	+5% $-309	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-298	+0% $-215	+5% $-132	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-146	base $-215	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,805
• Closing costs: $8,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	0.13mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.15mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	0.20mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.67mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	1.02mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	1.14mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,990 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,990 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,990 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,990 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,990 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $244,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $243,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

17. 2026-02-20
    price $242,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

18. 2026-02-04
    price $238,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

19. 2026-01-07
    price $236,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

20. 2025-11-04
    price $235,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

21. 2025-10-16
    price $234,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

22. 2025-10-02
    price $251,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

23. 2025-09-04
    price $250,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

24. 2025-08-03
    price $249,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

25. 2025-07-02
    price $272,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

26. 2025-06-04
    price $271,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

27. 2025-05-24
    listed $270,990 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,192
• − Property taxes: −$4,068
• − Insurance: −$1,356
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$7,890
• Taxable loss: −$7,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $-822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or tenant looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $235,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $270,990 Zillow