1509 Bel Air Dr · Junction City, KS 66441

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1962 8,075 sqft lot $202/sqft · 61% above area Est $217k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 4-bedroom (1 non-conforming), 2-bath home with plenty of space to enjoy! The main level features a welcoming family room, kitchen with eat-in dining, three bedrooms, and a full bath. The finished basement offers a second family room, laundry area, non-conforming bedroom, and an additional bathroom—perfect for extra living or guest space. Recent updates include new paint on the exterior, fresh paint throughout the main level, a new sewer line, HVAC system installed within the last 2 years, and a new carport. Step outside to a large, fully fenced backyard—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity—contact Holly Beck at 785.410.7794 to schedule your personal tour!

Key facts

• New carport
• Finished basement
• Hvac system

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW SEWER LINE
• HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-756/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#266 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Geary County Schools (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #60 of 169 in KS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Geary County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geary County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $175k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,504 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,046
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -19.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,097
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,019
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66441

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,721/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $163,763

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-14	+0% $-63	+5% $-113	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-117	+0% $-63	+5% $-10	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-19	base $-63	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    historical $1,400
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $174,900 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Adorable 4-bedroom (1 non-conforming), 2-bath home with plenty of space to enjoy! The main level features a welcoming family room, kitchen with eat-in dining, three bedrooms, and a full bath. The finished basement offers a second family room, laundry area, non-conforming bedroom, and an additional bathroom—perfect for extra living or guest space. Recent updates include new paint on the exterior, fresh paint throughout the main level, a new sewer line, HVAC system installed within the last 2 years, and a new carport. Step outside to a large, fully fenced backyard—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity—contact Holly Beck at 785.410.7794 to schedule your personal tour!

19. 2026-02-28
    listed $1,400
20. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Ready to move in: upgraded electrical service, newly painted interior walls, new front steps, new oven/range and new carpet in family room. The house features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, living room and eat-in kitchen on the main level. The full basement has a finished family room and plumbed for a second bath. The exterior features an attached single car carport, steel siding and a large fenced yard. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through June 13th, 2017. For info on the First Look Initiative go to www. homesteps. com, Click on Offers & Incentives.

21. 2017-05-24
    listed $49,900 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Ready to move in: upgraded electrical service, newly painted interior walls, new front steps, new oven/range and new carpet in family room. The house features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, living room and eat-in kitchen on the main level. The full basement has a finished family room and plumbed for a second bath. The exterior features an attached single car carport, steel siding and a large fenced yard. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through June 13th, 2017. For info on the First Look Initiative go to www. homesteps. com, Click on Offers & Incentives.

22. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus $111,900
23. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,466 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,721
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geary County Schools
• NCES district ID: 2007890
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,319
• Composite: 30.2/100
• National rank: #6306
• State rank: #60 of 169 in KS

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #11965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, KS
• County: Geary County · 25,828 people
• City population: 25,828
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 25,828
• Household income: $59,522
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 950.0

Population outlook (Geary County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,364 people
• By 2030: 38,234 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 39,727 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 40,314 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 44,283 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 46,935 · +25.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geary

• 2024 margin: R (+17.6) · D 40.1% · R 57.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.6 2020: R+14.7 2016: R+21.7 2012: R+14.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.25%
• Current HPI: 137.9936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.05%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Rental Removed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2026-03-18 Listed $174,900 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-28 Listed for Rent $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2017-07-31 Sold (MLS) — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2017-05-24 Listed $49,900 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $111,900 Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,721 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.