4843 N Bailey Ave · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1967 7,867 sqft lot Est $252k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Rec room
• Newer windows

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• REC ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on city street / main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Manser Dr	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,209 (+2%)	0mo	$248,515	$206	78
231 Blackstone Blvd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$196	70
1283 Brighton Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+3%)	1mo	$230,000	$188	65
630 Emerson Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,033 (-13%)	1mo	$302,500	$293	65
362 Meyer Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,247 (+5%)	3mo	$208,000	$167	62
119 Treadwell Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,209 (+2%)	5mo	$170,000	$141	61
100 Calvin Ct S	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+3%)	1mo	$337,000	$274	54
39 Hartford Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-11%)	1mo	$265,000	$250	52
747 Sweet Home Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$332,150	$245	52
1257 Brighton Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	51
52 Calvin Ct S	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,332 (+12%)	1mo	$325,000	$244	41
378 Meyer Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (+11%)	5mo	$280,000	$212	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,998
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $61,333
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,864

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $262	+0% $205	+5% $149	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $121	+0% $205	+5% $289	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $256	base $205	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	20d	1	0.02mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	45d	1	0.14mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	17d	1	0.69mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	4d	1	0.69mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	45d	1	0.92mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	3d	2	0.95mi
780 Millersport Hwy Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	45d	1	0.96mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	3d	1	1.07mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	12d	1	1.17mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Unit 04 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	3d	1	1.17mi
4585 Chestnut Ridge Rd #4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	25d	1	1.17mi
63 Garnet Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	1.17mi
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	3d	1	1.21mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$1,595	$2.51	3d	2	1.21mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Unit 1357-03 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	45d	1	1.21mi
1410 Deer Lakes Dr Amherst, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	4d	5	1.26mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	25d	1	1.32mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	45d	1	1.45mi
1525 Amherst Manor Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	5	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2022-03-02
   soldstatus $205,001
4. 2022-02-28
   soldstatus $205,001 Closed Sale or Rented 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

5. 2022-01-19
   status Pending Sale 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

6. 2021-12-29
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

7. 2021-12-22
   status Active 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

8. 2021-11-30
   status Pending Sale 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

9. 2021-11-16
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 545-char remark

   Show marketing remark (545 chars)

   Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

10. 2021-11-04
    listed $190,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Affordably priced all brick 3 bedroom Ranch located within Sweet Home School District! Updates include newer roof (approx. 2yrs old) and some newer windows. Nice sized eat in kitchen that flows into spacious living room. Basement has rec room with Fireplace (NRTC). Large 2 car detached garage, concrete driveway and fully fenced yard complete with shed for extra storage. Bring your decorating ideas and finishing touches to make it your own! Conveniently located to all amenities! Showings start immediately. All offers due by 11-09-21 @ 5pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,095 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,095 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $2,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $205,001 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $205,001 WNYREIS
• 2022-01-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-12-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-12-22 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $190,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,095 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.