512 Oak Dr · Monroe, MI 48161

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1925 0.45 ac lot Est $169k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in MI, #1,034 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Monroe Public Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #278 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waterloo Elementary School (281 students, 84% FRL); Monroe Middle School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade C, #127 of 493 statewide, top 26%, 653 students, 66% FRL); Monroe High School (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #364 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,304 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 52% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,596 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.89%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Palmwood Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+6%)	11mo	$145,000	$137	73
958 Woodville Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	920 (-8%)	2mo	$177,900	$193	63
958 Western Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+2%)	10mo	$245,000	$242	62
854 Woodville Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+10%)	11mo	$196,000	$178	56
936 Jefferson Ct	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,086 (+9%)	9mo	$185,000	$170	54
974 Woodville Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+10%)	1mo	$205,000	$186	53
511 John Rolfe Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	875 (-12%)	4mo	$185,000	$211	45
725 W 6th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+15%)	2mo	$130,000	$114	42
804 Rambow Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-10%)	11mo	$149,900	$167	41
606 W 4th St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+15%)	6mo	$167,000	$146	40
716 W 7th St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	882 (-11%)	11mo	$95,000	$108	38
856 Rambow Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	846 (-15%)	10mo	$65,000	$77	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-21,410
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,020
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48161

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $88	+0% $46	+5% $3	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $-4	+0% $46	+5% $96	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $84	base $46	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1985 S Custer Rd Apt 3 Monroe, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.49mi
620 John Anderson Ct Unit 628-28 Monroe, MI	2.0	1.5	800	$1,095	$1.37	45d	1	0.74mi
620 John Anderson Ct Monroe, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	787	$995	$1.26	1d	10	0.74mi
620 John Anderson Ct Monroe, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	787	$1,295	$1.64	45d	7	0.74mi
1250 Strandwyck Dr Monroe, MI	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,274	$1.01	15d	1	0.88mi
733 Smith St Monroe, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.88mi
1450 S Monroe St Monroe, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,350	$1.59	25d	1	1.02mi
739 Washington St Monroe, MI	2.0	2.0	853	$995	$1.17	45d	1	1.22mi
1250 Josephine Ct Monroe, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$975	$1.23	6d	2	1.39mi
1318 Frank Dr Monroe, MI	3.0	1.0–2.5	1300	$2,025	$1.56	6d	6	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-17
   soldstatus $140,000
3. 2023-08-15
   soldstatus $140,000 Closed 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

4. 2023-07-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

5. 2023-07-19
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

6. 2023-07-08
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

7. 2023-07-08
   status Active 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

8. 2023-07-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

9. 2023-07-07
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

10. 2023-06-24
    listed $149,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

11. 2023-06-24
    listed $149,900 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Move in ready, located within minutes of stores, restaurants, and all the conveniences. This home offers an awesome 2.5 car garage on a beautiful private lot on a dead-end street.

12. 1994-01-19
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,456 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$852/yr (+$71/mo · 141.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$484
• After-tax cash flow: $1,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,437
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6269
• State rank: #278 of 540 in MI

Livability — Monroe

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #1034

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 54,460 people
• City population: 54,460
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 26,304
• Household income: $67,414
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 8% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.99%
• Current HPI: 126.2638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-15 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-24 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-24 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 1994-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · -62.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.