None · Meadow Lake, NM 87031

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 1.31 ac lot $143/sqft · 39% below area Est $230k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on 1 acre. Plenty of space, privacy, and potential.

Key facts

• 1.31 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR-1; Lot size: 1.31 acres

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available (septic tank); Water available (shared well)
• Home design: Single-story; Flat roof; Faces north; Resale mobile home model BLA (70' x 14')
• Construction: Mobile home construction; Built by TRLR
• Exterior features: Deck; Private entrance; Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (14 x 14)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Single-pane windows; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#306 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.27%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,000
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -39.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $25,823
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $119,187
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $140,000 Active 98-char remark
16. 2023-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $5,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Meadow Lake

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #26141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lake, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $140,000 Southwest MLS
• 2023-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $228 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.