407 Locust St · Buffalo, OK 73834

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Improvements underway Feb'25! New Electrical panel and updated HVAC! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is undergoing a transformation. At 1359 sq ft±, this is one of the best priced homes per square foot in the area! Spacious living areas and bonus room above garage, this unique home is set in a great location. See it today!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Eat in kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• BUILT IN CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#111 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Buffalo (rural): math 20% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #458 of 513 in OK (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Harper County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $55k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.77%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,030
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 N Locust St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,359 (-0%)	16mo	$30,000	$22	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $56,685
• Equity at exit: $43,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.12×
• Total profit: $140,402
• Equity at exit: $87,779

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73834

• Home prices YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $361/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $432

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 227-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$361
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,035
• − Management: −$1,035
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,551
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $4,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo
• NCES district ID: 4005760
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,038
• Composite: 16.76/100
• National rank: #14225
• State rank: #458 of 513 in OK

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #11659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, OK
• Population (ZIP): 1,587

Population outlook (Harper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,023 people
• By 2030: 4,159 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 4,566 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 5,146 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 7,497 · +86.4%
• By 2100: 10,727 · +166.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Harper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.4) · D 10.1% · R 88.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -71.7pp · 2024: -78.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.4 2020: R+80.1 2016: R+79.2 2012: R+75.9 2008: R+71.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.43%
• Current HPI: 122.3708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $55,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-03-04 Contingent — NWOAR
• 2025-03-04 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWOAR
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $30,000 NWOAR
• 2025-02-10 Relisted — NWOAR
• 2025-01-17 Contingent — NWOAR
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $29,000 NWOAR
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $30,000 NWOAR
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $35,000 NWOAR
• 2024-07-02 Listed $40,000 NWOAR
• 2002-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $361 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.