40914 Laredo Trl · Cherry Valley, CA 92223

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1983 4,356 sqft lot Est $279k · 21% over $187/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Highland Springs Village. Located with a peek a boo view of the golf course and lake. Nice covered patio area for entertaining. Workshop. Covered parking.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Golf course access
• Storage shed

Tags

• GREAT VIEWS
• GOLF COURSE ACCESS
• SIZABLE GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Highland Springs Village association; Monthly association fee of $187; Association amenities include pickleball, tennis, golf, pool, dog park, clubhouse and billiard room; Senior community; Community features include golf course, dog park and fishing

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Planned development community; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Association pool; Rectangular lot shape; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with front door entry; Great room; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Cherry Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,107 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $339k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,236 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40862 Laredo Trl	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$240,000	$167	89
40798 Cheyenne Trl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$325,000	$226	88
10321 Chisholm Trl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$170	87
41238 Cheyenne Trl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$150	87
40972 Cheyenne Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$235,000	$163	86
10165-10165 Frontier Trl	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	78
10015 Comanche Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	13mo	$310,000	$212	76
10255 Frontier Trl	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	11mo	$292,750	$197	75
10514 Arapahoe Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$296,000	$206	74
10420 Chisholm Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$195,000	$145	73
40801 Cheyenne Trl	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,624 (+13%)	10mo	$315,000	$194	66
10493 Overland Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+14%)	6mo	$325,000	$198	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-67,113
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-67,716
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92223

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$187
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $299,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-130	+0% $-226	+5% $-322	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-328	+0% $-226	+5% $-124	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-140	base $-226	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9985 Frontier Trl Cherry Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,300	$2.18	18d	1	0.17mi
39670 Grand Ave Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,595	$1.64	2d	1	1.40mi
39559 Cherry Valley Blvd Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,900	$1.56	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $187 · $2,244/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $339,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − HOA: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$8,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cherry Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #25562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,833
• Household income: $102,761
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -395.13%
• Current HPI: 373.4608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+149.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $339,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-22 Sold (MLS) $127,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-17 Sold (MLS) $127,000 CRMLS
• 2016-02-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-01-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2016-01-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-01-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-01-15 Listed $135,900 CRMLS
• 2015-11-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-11-05 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2015-11-04 Listed $135,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.