4279 Fernwood St #39 · Rocklin, CA 95677

$80,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 279 Days on market

Built 1973 $111/sqft · 6% below area Est $85k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience ownership in this newly renovated mobile home. Located conveniently in sought after Sierra Lakes Mobile Home Park. No age restrictions, beautiful setting and loads of amenities. This unit has been gutted and remodeled including both bathrooms and the kitchen. It features all new windows, new flooring throughout, sheetrock walls, custom cabinets and new paint in and out. All that is left is your own personal touch! Great park with ideal location and lots of amenities. Close to shopping, easy freeway access and options for dining.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Ideal location
• Gutted and remodeled

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• GUTTED AND REMODELED
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• IDEAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 2.7% in Rocklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#136 in CA, #4,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rocklin Unified (suburban): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #96 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.18%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -5.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4166 Oakmont St #197	0.19mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	4mo	$85,000	$118	87
4168 Lakeside Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	804 (+12%)	23mo	$85,000	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $59,656
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $145,123
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95677

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 S Grove St Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$2,100	$2.75	1d	6	0.33mi
5800 Woodside Dr Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,239	$2.63	3d	4	0.72mi
4760 3rd St Unit B, Rocklin, CA 95677 Rocklin, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	21d	1	0.82mi
5457 5th St Rocklin, CA	3.0	1.0	640	$1,845	$2.88	7d	1	0.92mi
5180 Rocklin Rd Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,552	$2.98	1d	9	1.20mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $80,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 261 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $13,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,172
• After-tax cash flow: $10,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocklin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600013
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $82,858
• Composite: 49.58/100
• National rank: #1984
• State rank: #96 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rocklin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocklin, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 73,077
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,206
• Household income: $105,713
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -443.08%
• Current HPI: 278.1359
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B