2454 Spring Rise Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$257,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-Story Living with Jack and Jill Bath and Open Layout The Prism is a beautifully designed one-story home offering 1,911 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious layout features an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen showcases granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances, creating a seamless flow throughout the main living spaces. A convenient Jack and Jill bathroom adds functionality, while the private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and en suite bath. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard extend the living spa

Key facts

• One story living
• Open layout
• Large island

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Association Services Inc; Annual association fee of $1,100

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Starlight Homes; 2026 construction; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fence (back yard); Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 17 x 14; Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — 10.5 x 10.5
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $257,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $334,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,762 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2506 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	1,912 (0%)	0mo	$290,790	$152	94
15803 Lone Juniper Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-4%)	2mo	$280,790	$154	80
2006 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-3%)	2mo	$346,077	$186	80
2011 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,861 (-3%)	0mo	$383,332	$206	79
15811 Tall Barberry Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-0%)	2mo	$338,613	$177	79
15831 Tall Barberry Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,147 (+12%)	2mo	$362,927	$169	67
15822 Tall Barberry Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	0mo	$373,901	$180	67
15819 Tall Barberry Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$274,990	$132	67
15827 Switchgrass Ct	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,147 (+12%)	2mo	$392,881	$183	67
15839 Tall Barberry Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-9%)	1mo	$249,990	$143	65
2015 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$363,166	$175	64
2010 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$363,010	$175	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-96,095
• Equity at exit: $49,890

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-146,584
• Equity at exit: $28,930

Cash invested: $93,688 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,019/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,043

Max offer price $247,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-374	-5% $-489	+0% $-605	+5% $-721	+10% $-836
Rent	-10% $-785	-5% $-695	+0% $-605	+5% $-515	+10% $-425
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-520	base $-605	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,650
• Closing costs: $10,038
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,990 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,990 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,990 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $257,990 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $261,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,743
• − Property taxes: −$5,019
• − Insurance: −$1,673
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,734
• Taxable loss: −$13,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This one-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, hardwood flooring, and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $261,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $291,790 HARMLS