3676 Spring Ln · Lake Oswego, OR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $498 – $926
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 92°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 9/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 14 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +6.3/30.0
- Schools +6.0/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- 1% rule +3.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +0.6/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$315,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Convenient location in beautiful, private, park-like setting. Close to the bus line, Mercantile & the new Spring Senior center, minutes to Bridgeport Village & Whole Foods. Freshly painted with new flooring. Quartz counter tops. High ceiling and big windows to bring in the natural lights. Move in ready!
Key facts
- High ceiling
- New flooring
- Convenient location
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $315k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (31.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (13.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $216k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 1.4% in Lake Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in OR, #769 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
- Lake Oswego SD 7J (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #4 of 58 in OR (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 257 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $130k; list at $315k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.86% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.16%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.62%
- DSCR
- 0.66
- GRM
- 9.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $575,700
- List price
- $315,000
- Delta
- -45.28%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.36% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -33.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.06×
- Total profit
- $-93,385
- Equity at exit
- $46,968
- IRR
- -66.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.74×
- Total profit
- $-153,174
- Equity at exit
- $27,235
Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Oregon
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 97035
- Rents YoY
- 0.4%
- Active inventory
- 257
- Price-to-rent
- 9.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,724 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,652
- Tax from tax record
- −$325 /mo · $3,895/yr
- Insurance
- −$131
- HOA
- −$604
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$572
- Net cashflow
- $-560
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $78,750
- Closing costs
- $9,450
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 12 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4055 Mercantile Dr Lake Oswego, OR | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 938 | $2,788 | $2.97 | 2d | 10 | 0.24mi |
| 4180 Collins Way Lake Oswego, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1236 | $2,548 | $2.06 | 44d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 4933 Parkview Dr Lake Oswego, OR | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 915 | $2,420 | $2.65 | 2d | 11 | 0.68mi |
| 4 Touchstone #143 Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1351 | $2,595 | $1.92 | 24d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 200 Greenridge Dr Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 745 | $2,226 | $2.99 | 2d | 16 | 0.99mi |
| 4771 Auburn Ln Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2183 | $4,450 | $2.04 | 44d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 14201 Dolph Ct Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1864 | $3,850 | $2.07 | 44d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 4970 Galen St Lake Oswego, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1332 | $2,495 | $1.87 | 44d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 1581 Woodland Ter Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2072 | $3,629 | $1.75 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 1 Jefferson Pkwy Lake Oswego, OR | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1070 | $2,322 | $2.17 | 2d | 15 | 1.25mi |
| 5188 Rosewood St Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1800 | $3,200 | $1.78 | 20d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 304 Cervantes Cir Unit 304 Lake Oswego, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1260 | $2,500 | $1.98 | 44d | 1 | 1.48mi |
HOA detail condo
- Monthly dues
- $604 · $7,248/yr
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-06-15statusdays on market $315,000 Pending 107 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $315,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $315,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $315,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $315,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $315,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $315,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $315,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $315,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $315,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $315,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-04-20price $315,000 312-char remark
Show marketing remark (312 chars)
Convenient location in beautiful, private, park-like setting. Close to the bus line, Mercantile & the new Spring Senior center, minutes to Bridgeport Village & Whole Foods. Freshly painted with new flooring. Quartz counter tops. High ceiling and big windows to bring in the natural lights. Move in ready!
-
2026-02-26$335,000 Active 312-char remark
Show marketing remark (312 chars)
Convenient location in beautiful, private, park-like setting. Close to the bus line, Mercantile & the new Spring Senior center, minutes to Bridgeport Village & Whole Foods. Freshly painted with new flooring. Quartz counter tops. High ceiling and big windows to bring in the natural lights. Move in ready!
-
2012-01-30historical
-
2011-10-24soldstatus $130,000
-
2011-08-02$139,900 Active
-
1987-05-01soldstatus $59,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,895 · $325/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,895 · $325/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 9/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,685
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,645
- − Property taxes
- −$3,895
- − Insurance
- −$1,575
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,615
- − Management
- −$2,615
- − HOA
- −$7,248
- − Depreciation
- −$9,164
- Taxable loss
- −$12,071
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,897
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,822/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lake Oswego SD 7J
- NCES district ID
- 4107230
- Math proficiency
- 61% ▼ -13.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 72% ▼ -12.00%
- Median HH income
- $85,996
- Composite
- 59.86/100
- National rank
- #889
- State rank
- #4 of 58 in OR
Livability — Lake Oswego
- Score
- 84/100
- State rank
- #32
- US rank
- #769
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lake Oswego, OR
- County
- Clackamas County · 361,406 people
- City population
- 47,242
- Metro
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,911
- Household income
- $130,603
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 667.0
Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 458,456 people
- By 2030
- 485,185 · +5.8%
- By 2040
- 532,932 · +16.2%
- By 2050
- 574,445 · +25.3%
- By 2075
- 665,497 · +45.2%
- By 2100
- 697,488 · +52.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Asian 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
- Foreign-born
- 15% · China, Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3% Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -511.92%
- Current HPI
- 304.7663
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.36%
- Metro
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $51B |
|
||
Price history
+433.9% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-20 Price Changed $315,000 RMLS
- 2026-02-26 Listed $335,000 RMLS
- 2012-01-30 Listing Removed — WVMLS
- 2011-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
- 2011-08-02 Listed $139,900 WVMLS
- 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.0%/yrLatest (2025): $3,895 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…