7659 Lake Ridge Pkwy · Abilene, TX 79602

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 8,059 sqft lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $325k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful new construction home is located in the newest phase of Carriage Hills, offering a prime location in Wylie ISD near Lake Kirby. An impressive 8-foot front door creates a welcoming entry and accents the home’s modern design. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features three bedrooms plus a versatile flex room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The spacious primary suite includes dual vanities, a relaxing soaking tub, and a large walk-in shower. The open-concept kitchen overlooks the living area, making it ideal for entertaining. Large back patio for you to create outdoor living space. Luxury vinyl flooring, sod, sprinkler system, and fence will be installed. This one is being built and ready for you to make it yours, schedule a showing today! Estimated completion late summer.

Key facts

• Large back patio
• Open-concept kitchen
• Versatile flex room

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• PRIME LOCATION
• WELCOMING ENTRY
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,822 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,000
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7685 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	0mo	$325,000	$197	96
7689 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	95
7693 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	94
132 Lake Ridge Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+1%)	1mo	$350,000	$211	88
7654 Hudson Way	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (-4%)	1mo	$335,000	$212	80
149 Spring Park Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+4%)	1mo	$289,000	$169	79
7584 Wildflower	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-8%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	73
7580 Wildflower	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-8%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	73
331 Sophia Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-1%)	0mo	$329,000	$202	68
7633 Wildflower Way	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+7%)	1mo	$348,000	$197	68
168 Carriage Hills Pkwy	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-8%)	0mo	$304,000	$200	65
7321 Wildflower Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (+5%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-25,704
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $65,400
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,856

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $280	+0% $168	+5% $56	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $47	+0% $168	+5% $289	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $251	base $168	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	14d	1	0.15mi
7646 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	21d	1	0.15mi
7627 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$8,900	$5.57	14d	1	0.18mi
405 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,895	$2.01	8d	1	0.22mi
409 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,895	$2.05	6d	1	0.22mi
385 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.24mi
7625 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.24mi
7717 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,375	$2.25	12d	1	0.24mi
7709 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	0.25mi
8001 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.28mi
7949 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.29mi
8009 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.30mi
385 Kristi Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.33mi
273 Martis Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$3,200	$1.93	14d	1	0.58mi
7328 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	12d	1	0.63mi
7326 Mountain View Rd Unit 7328 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	12d	1	0.64mi
331 Sophia Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,195	$1.96	4d	1	0.65mi
7319 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$4,000	$2.66	44d	1	0.66mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	25d	1	0.73mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	3d	1	0.91mi
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$5,500	$3.04	0d	1	0.97mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	3d	1	1.27mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	8d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   This beautiful new construction home is located in the newest phase of Carriage Hills, offering a prime location in Wylie ISD near Lake Kirby. An impressive 8-foot front door creates a welcoming entry and accents the home’s modern design. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features three bedrooms plus a versatile flex room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The spacious primary suite includes dual vanities, a relaxing soaking tub, and a large walk-in shower. The open-concept kitchen overlooks the living area, making it ideal for entertaining. Large back patio for you to create outdoor living space. Luxury vinyl flooring, sod, sprinkler system, and fence will be installed. This one is being built and ready for you to make it yours, schedule a showing today! Estimated completion late summer.

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $325,000 Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   This beautiful new construction home is located in the newest phase of Carriage Hills, offering a prime location in Wylie ISD near Lake Kirby. An impressive 8-foot front door creates a welcoming entry and accents the home’s modern design. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features three bedrooms plus a versatile flex room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The spacious primary suite includes dual vanities, a relaxing soaking tub, and a large walk-in shower. The open-concept kitchen overlooks the living area, making it ideal for entertaining. Large back patio for you to create outdoor living space. Luxury vinyl flooring, sod, sprinkler system, and fence will be installed. This one is being built and ready for you to make it yours, schedule a showing today! Estimated completion late summer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,945
• − Management: −$2,945
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$3,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $2,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a prime location and modern design, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Kitchen and bathrooms — Updates these spaces can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathrooms — Updates these spaces can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $325,000 NTREIS