4409 Hillbrook Dr · Orange, TX 77632

$1

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1982 0.94 ac lot $0/sqft · 100% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood with no restrictions, no HOA, offering comfort, space, and extensive modern upgrades. Filled with natural light, this well-maintained home features major improvements completed in late 2025 and 2026, including a new roof, two A/C systems, two water heaters, water-resistant luxury vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, and updated cabinetry with granite countertops. The spacious floor plan offers 4 bedrooms, 3 1/2 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, providing flexibility for family living, guests, a home office, or entertaining. Step outside to enjoy your private backyard retreat featuring a swimming pool, perfect fo

Key facts

• Private backyard
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• NEAR AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional parking with alley access
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, synthetic stucco, and wood siding exterior; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Private above-ground pool; Corner lot; Security gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 9); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (11 x 13; 11 x 9; 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 1685105.9% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 177754.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 1685105.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 6018212.95%
• DSCR: 267777.61
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,857
• List price: $1
• Delta: 30.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 319515.52×
• Total profit: $89,464
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 689921.17×
• Total profit: $193,178
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77632

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 294

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,404

Break-even live

Break-even rent —

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 16%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,404	+0% $1,404	+5% $1,404	+10% $1,404
Rent	-10% $1,264	-5% $1,334	+0% $1,404	+5% $1,474	+10% $1,545
Rate	-1.0pp $1,404	-0.5pp $1,404	base $1,404	+0.5pp $1,404	+1.0pp $1,404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    historical
19. 2026-04-23
    price $385,000
20. 2026-04-07
    listed $395,000 Active
21. 2010-10-04
    soldstatus
22. 2008-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $17,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,300
• After-tax cash flow: $12,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,976
• Household income: $74,418
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.96%
• Current HPI: 149.354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed for Rent $2,499 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $1 HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2010-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,205 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.