19019 E State Route 3 Unit A · Allyn, WA 98524

$349,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Condo · 161 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2021, this stylish multi level condo offers low-maintenance living in the heart of Allyn. The lower level features a spacious bedroom, full bath, laundry, & family room with easy access to the attached 2-car garage. Upstairs, you’ll find the light-filled great room that opens to the modern kitchen—perfect for entertaining! The primary suite includes a full bath & walk-in closet, plus 2 additional bedrooms & a convenient half bath complete the space. Step out onto the balcony overlooking the fully fenced backyard, complete with stairs for easy outdoor access. Enjoy abundant natural light and a prime location near Lakeland Village Golf Course, the pier, &

Key facts

• Multi level condo
• Walk in closet
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MULTI LEVEL CONDO
• LIGHT FILLED GREAT ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BALCONY OVERLOOKING BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Allyn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#287 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• North Mason School District (rural): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 291 in WA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $234,165 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,122
• Equity at exit: $52,179

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-93,772
• Equity at exit: $30,257

Cash invested: $97,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98524

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,251/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $293,654

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-220	+0% $-319	+5% $-418	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-411	+0% $-319	+5% $-226	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-230	base $-319	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,488
• Closing costs: $10,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19019 E State Route 3 Unit A Allyn, WA	3.0	3.0	1580	$2,295	$1.45	13d	1	0.02mi
321 E Soderberg Rd Unit A2 Allyn, WA	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	13d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $349,950 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-03-21
   status Active
3. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-11
   price $349,950
5. 2025-12-10
   price $355,950
6. 2025-11-13
   price $361,500
7. 2025-11-07
   price $364,000
8. 2025-10-31
   listed $369,000 Active
9. 2025-07-15
   listed $2,295

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,251 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,178/yr (+$98/mo · 52.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,251
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − Depreciation: −$10,180
• Taxable loss: −$10,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Mason School District
• NCES district ID: 5305790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,458
• Composite: 34.67/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #233 of 291 in WA

Livability — Allyn

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #10039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allyn, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,585

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovak 9% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.76%
• Current HPI: 183.7245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+15148.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $349,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $355,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $361,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $364,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $369,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed for Rent $2,295 REDFIN

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,251 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.