Is 8401 S Kolb Rd #336 in Tucson, AZ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 18.3% cap rate and $699/mo modeled cash flow at a $70,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8401 S Kolb Rd #336?

The modeled cap rate is 18.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,497/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 57.85

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +22.5/30.0
1% rule +7.5/10.0
DSCR +7.5/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -5.0

$70,000

8401 S Kolb Rd #336 · Tucson, AZ 85756

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1993 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot Garage $52/sqft · 55% below area

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Ranged price. Seller to counter or accept offers between $70,000 and $80,000. Great home on a corner lot in the 55+ Trails West community that offers 2 pools/spa and a great Rec Center. See docs tab for more info! This manufactured home has some important unique and desired properties: 2 car carport where most have only 1 extended; New roof as of 2025!; New screens on AZ room; New front porch as of 2025; Both bathrooms have been updated over the last two years; New Washer and Dryer; New Fridge; and 2 sheds on each side of the home! Butcher block island in kitchen with Corian counters and attractive backsplash. Windows were updated over the last couple of years as well.

Key facts

2 car carport
2 pools spa
New front porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Rincon Vista Middle School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #47 of 218 statewide, top 21%, 699 students, 23% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 97d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.14% ✓
Cap rate: 18.28%
Cash-on-cash: 42.80%
DSCR: 2.90
GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $156,250
List price: $70,000
Delta: -48.80%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8401 S Kolb Rd #61	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	2mo	$59,000	$46	94
7577 E Maritime Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,253 (-6%)	0mo	$331,000	$264	86
7439 E Maritime Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,356 (+2%)	5mo	$379,900	$280	81
7499 E Maritime Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (+5%)	8mo	$385,000	$276	73
8563 S Dubloon Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,322 (-1%)	2mo	$345,000	$261	68
7650 E Majestic Palm Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+4%)	6mo	$305,000	$220	61
8584 S Magellan Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,253 (-6%)	6mo	$360,000	$287	59
7124 E Navigator	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,402 (+5%)	9mo	$360,000	$257	53
7308 E Navigator	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-17%)	5mo	$345,000	$312	50
7555 E Majestic Palm Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,131 (-15%)	7mo	$270,000	$239	44
7197 E Alderberry St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (+20%)	0mo	$320,000	$200	42
7991 S Dolphin Way	1.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+8%)	6mo	$309,400	$214	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 37.9%
Equity multiple: 2.58×
Total profit: $31,003
Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

IRR: 43.7%
Equity multiple: 4.86×
Total profit: $75,665
Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 13 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 78.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $185,000 ($133/sqft)
Median days on market: 79 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -12.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85756

Home prices YoY: -19.4%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 257
Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,497 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$367
Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
Insurance: −$29
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $723	+0% $699	+5% $675	+10% $651
Rent	-10% $581	-5% $640	+0% $699	+5% $758	+10% $817
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $717	base $699	+0.5pp $681	+1.0pp $662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $17,500
Closing costs: $2,100
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	114d	1	0.26mi
7380 E Maritime Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	97d	1	0.33mi
7685 E Fair Meadows Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1387	$1,775	$1.28	61d	1	0.41mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	106d	1	1.33mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	139d	1	1.33mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,775	$0.99	82d	1	1.39mi
6729 E Neptune Cove Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,799	$1.25	0d	1	1.45mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,699	$1.06	74d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Zoned Corona De Tuc - CMH2
HOA & community: Road maintenance by HOACommunity amenities: pool, spa, shuffleboard, fitness center, recreation center

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 covered/carport spaces
Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
Home design: Manufactured homeOne storyProperty faces south
Construction: Wood frame constructionShingle roof
Exterior features: Corner lotPaved road accessCovered, screened patio and deckShed(s)Has spaCommunity pool and spaCommunity shuffleboard, fitness center and recreation center

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorGas rangeMicrowave
Flooring: Vinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump cooling
Interior features: Kitchen islandVaulted ceilingsDouble pane windowsSmoke and carbon monoxide detectors
Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasher includedDryer includedGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $70,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $70,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $70,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $70,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $70,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-18

remarks 677-char remark
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $70,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $80,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $80,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $80,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $80,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $80,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $80,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $80,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $80,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $80,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $80,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $80,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $80,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $80,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $80,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $80,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $80,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $80,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $80,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-21

remarks 629-char remark
2026-08-21

days on market $80,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $80,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $80,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $80,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $80,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $80,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $80,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $80,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $80,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $80,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $80,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $80,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $80,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $80,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $80,000 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $17,966
− Mortgage interest: −$3,921
− Property taxes: −$1,050
− Insurance: −$350
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
− Management: −$1,437
− Depreciation: −$2,036
Taxable income: $7,734

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,856
After-tax cash flow: $6,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,670–$20,010 screening

This manufactured home in the 55+ Trails West community is in good condition with recent updates and improvements, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans save on energy costs and improve comfort ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Willow Elementary School C- AZ #233/1,109 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Rincon Vista Middle School D AZ #47/218 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Cienega High School D- AZ #50/381 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Vail Unified District (4413)
NCES district ID: 0408850
Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $77,126
Composite: 49.1/100
National rank: #2051
State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

Score: 74/100
State rank: #17
US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
City population: 839,336
Metro: Tucson, AZ
Population (ZIP): 37,700
Household income: $72,490
Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
Current HPI: 304.0243
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
Metro: Tucson, AZ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	2	$13B
#417 ON Semiconductor Scottsdale $7.1B #467 Resideo Technologies Scottsdale $6.1B
Mining / Metals	1	$23B
#174 Freeport-McMoRan Phoenix $23.4B
Environmental Services	1	$16B
#209 Republic Services Phoenix $15.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$14B
#471 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Scottsdale $14.0B
Technology Distribution	1	$9B
#363 Insight Enterprises Chandler $9.4B
Homebuilding	1	$8B
#424 Taylor Morrison Scottsdale $7.7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-06-17 Listed $80,000 MLSSAZ

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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