10212 Duke Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1954 6,499 sqft lot $129/sqft · 54% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a beautifully renovated piece of St. Louis history at 10212 Duke Dr, St. Louis, MO 63136. Built in 1954, this move-in ready single-family home combines classic charm with extensive modern updates, offering peace of mind knowing nearly everything has already been replaced or upgraded. Major improvements include brand new underground plumbing, a brand new water line, new electric service outside, a brand new water heater, and a brand new A/C unit. The home also features brand new windows throughout and a roof that is less than 5 years old. The furnace is approximately 10 years old and still working great. The updated kitchen features granite countertops, a brand new backsplash, and

Key facts

• New water line
• New electric service
• New a/c unit

Tags

• RENOVATED PIECE OF HISTORY
• NEW UNDERGROUND PLUMBING
• NEW WATER LINE
• NEW ELECTRIC SERVICE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW A/C UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $397

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Some trees

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 145 students, 98% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $85k implies a 795% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.99%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,169
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 54.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10040 Lord Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	672 (+2%)	4mo	$10,000	$15	80
10167 Count Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	624 (-5%)	7mo	$69,900	$112	76
10182 Count Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	702 (+7%)	17mo	$90,000	$128	66
10417 Lord Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	702 (+7%)	11mo	$79,000	$113	64
10140 Earl Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	737 (+12%)	10mo	$99,900	$136	62
10353 Lord Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	729 (+11%)	14mo	$1,113,000	$1,527	58
10437 Lord Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	702 (+7%)	17mo	$63,000	$90	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $36,196
• Equity at exit: $42,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $99,655
• Equity at exit: $67,971

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $672

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $85,000 Active 1157-char remark
16. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $9,500
17. 1991-01-01
    soldstatus
18. 1990-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,031
• − Management: −$1,031
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$616
• After-tax cash flow: $3,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+794.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $598 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.