6863 Chert Chase · San Antonio, TX 78223

$164,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $120/sqft · 10% above area Est $149k · 10% over $106/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $150,149 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,343
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: 10.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6844 Marble Rdg	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-1%)	0mo	$139,999	$103	86
6729 Marble Rdg	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-1%)	0mo	$140,999	$104	85
6808 Marble Rdg	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-1%)	1mo	$143,999	$106	84
6820 Marble Rdg	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-1%)	2mo	$146,999	$108	84
6630 Fiore Gdn	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$188,999	$140	84
14805 Mudstone Pl	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,483 (+8%)	1mo	$177,999	$120	78
15103 Azzurro Stone	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,483 (+8%)	1mo	$177,999	$120	78
15102 Azzurro Stone	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-8%)	1mo	$177,999	$141	74
6837 Chert Chase	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-13%)	0mo	$130,999	$110	71
6813 Chert Chase	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-13%)	1mo	$136,999	$115	68
15106 Azzurro Stone	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$196,999	$125	68
6725 Marble Rdg	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,189 (-14%)	0mo	$146,999	$124	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,500
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-29,194
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6933 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,695	$1.06	12d	1	0.23mi
6933 Biotite Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	10d	1	0.24mi
6948 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,600	$1.11	1d	1	0.28mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,700	$1.00	14d	1	0.95mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,700	$1.00	1d	1	0.95mi
14651 Latigo Loop Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,750	$1.03	1d	1	1.06mi
7663 Stud Dr Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	1d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,999 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,999 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,999 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,999 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,999 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,999 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,999 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,999 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $164,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $167,999 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $169,999 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $174,999 New 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2809.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $167,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $169,999 LERA
• 2026-02-19 Listed $174,999 LERA