3014 Lake Shore Dr Unit 20D · Lake George, NY 12845

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo · 28 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition $460/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a two-bedroom, two-bath Lake George waterfront condo in historic Oaklawn Mansion, once home to artist, Georgia O'Keeffe and photographer, Alfred Stieglitz. Cherry kitchen, granite counters & Stainless Steel appliances. Stunning year around fully furnished condo with FP, Wi-Fi & cable. Amenities include heated outdoor pool, sundecks, sandy beach area. Dock space available during owned weeks. Lower level of Mansion has hot tub room, washers and dryers, exercise equipment and seating area. Grill front of the unit for summer barbecue. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. HOA Fee is $400/Month. NO PETS.

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Sauna
• Laundry room

Tags

• DOCK SPACE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• SAUNA
• EXERCISE AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GRILL FRONT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located with seasonal shared waterfront on Lake George
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee of $460; Association amenities include beach access, boat dock, lake access and recreation facilities; Association fee covers cable TV, cooling, electricity, gas, heating, insurance, grounds maintenance, security, sewer, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic (shared septic)
• Home design: Condominium; Entry located on the first level; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Seasonal, shared access to Lake George

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Freezer; Microwave; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level; Bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first level, one on the second level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Entry on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.8% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 15% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $225k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $130,975
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $379,965
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetcablepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $225,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $195,000 Active
17. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a two-bedroom, two-bath Lake George waterfront condo in historic Oaklawn Mansion, once home to artist, Georgia O'Keeffe and photographer, Alfred Stieglitz. Cherry kitchen, granite counters & Stainless Steel appliances. Stunning year around fully furnished condo with FP, Wi-Fi & cable. Amenities include heated outdoor pool, sundecks, sandy beach area. Dock space available during owned weeks. Lower level of Mansion has hot tub room, washers and dryers, exercise equipment and seating area. Grill front of the unit for summer barbecue. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. HOA Fee is $400/Month. NO PETS.

18. 2022-08-26
    status Pending 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a two-bedroom, two-bath Lake George waterfront condo in historic Oaklawn Mansion, once home to artist, Georgia O'Keeffe and photographer, Alfred Stieglitz. Cherry kitchen, granite counters & Stainless Steel appliances. Stunning year around fully furnished condo with FP, Wi-Fi & cable. Amenities include heated outdoor pool, sundecks, sandy beach area. Dock space available during owned weeks. Lower level of Mansion has hot tub room, washers and dryers, exercise equipment and seating area. Grill front of the unit for summer barbecue. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. HOA Fee is $400/Month. NO PETS.

19. 2022-05-02
    listed $155,000 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a two-bedroom, two-bath Lake George waterfront condo in historic Oaklawn Mansion, once home to artist, Georgia O'Keeffe and photographer, Alfred Stieglitz. Cherry kitchen, granite counters & Stainless Steel appliances. Stunning year around fully furnished condo with FP, Wi-Fi & cable. Amenities include heated outdoor pool, sundecks, sandy beach area. Dock space available during owned weeks. Lower level of Mansion has hot tub room, washers and dryers, exercise equipment and seating area. Grill front of the unit for summer barbecue. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. HOA Fee is $400/Month. NO PETS.

20. 2017-11-03
    soldstatus $80,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Lake George’s best location. Stunning 2nd floor condo fully furnished sleep six. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. Dock space available for up to a 24’ boat during owned weeks. Lake front year around unit. Cherry kitchen, granite counters and stainless steel appliances. Amenities include beach, outdoor pool, exercise room, sauna and laundry room. Homeowners Association $370/Month includes phone, heating, cooling, cable & WI-FI. No pets. Excellent Condition

21. 2017-06-16
    listed $80,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Lake George’s best location. Stunning 2nd floor condo fully furnished sleep six. 1/4 ownership comes with 13 weeks per year on a rotating basis. Dock space available for up to a 24’ boat during owned weeks. Lake front year around unit. Cherry kitchen, granite counters and stainless steel appliances. Amenities include beach, outdoor pool, exercise room, sauna and laundry room. Homeowners Association $370/Month includes phone, heating, cooling, cable & WI-FI. No pets. Excellent Condition

22. 2017-04-08
    historical
23. 2016-10-07
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,603
• − Management: −$2,603
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $1,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This waterfront condo requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with average condition overall. Painting and new flooring can significantly improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Flooring — Carpet appears worn in some areas

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value
• Both Flooring — New flooring can enhance the living space and increase value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Carpet appears worn in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring can enhance the living space and increase value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+95.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $195,000 Global MLS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Global MLS
• 2022-08-26 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $155,000 Global MLS
• 2017-11-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Global MLS
• 2017-06-16 Listed $80,000 Global MLS
• 2017-04-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-10-07 Listed $99,900 Global MLS