3039 W Lucia Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$420,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2001 6,000 sqft lot Est $429k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHAT A DOLL HOUSE! LOVELY OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH BACK KITCHEN OVERLOOKING FRONT LIVING AREA OVER HALF-WALL. NICE CIRCULATION AND USE OF SPACE! STONE-LOOK TILE THROUGHOUT THE HOME! KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR, SMOOTH-TOP RANGE, BUILT-IN MICROWAVE, AND DW! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT HOME! FRESH AND CLEAN! RECESSED LIGHTING, SO NICE! WATER HEATER JUST 3 YEARS OLD! NEAT AND TRIMMED LANDSCAPING, EASY-CARE TOO! ALL THIS PLUS WASHER AND DRYER! TRULY MOVE-IN READY!

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Currently FHA financing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $150 quarterly fee (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Sprinklers in front with auto-timer; Desert front landscaping; Gravel/stone in back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric and natural gas heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Solar screens; Dual-pane windows; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (42.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stetson Hills School (math 69% / reading 67%, grade B+, #65 of 1,109 statewide, top 6%, 912 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 147% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $420k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,192 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $428,670
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3017 W Desert Vista Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,299 (0%)	2mo	$400,000	$308	94
3117 W Casino Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,299 (0%)	13mo	$391,000	$301	83
3034 W Casino Ave	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,241 (-4%)	18mo	$385,900	$311	67
29111 N 31st Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+9%)	0mo	$478,000	$339	65
2521 W Oberlin Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-6%)	3mo	$404,000	$330	53
3168 W Cedar Ridge Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	5mo	$475,000	$339	49
3172 W Cedar Ridge Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-5%)	24mo	$444,990	$361	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $186,165
• Equity at exit: $378,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $576,485
• Equity at exit: $815,968

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,306/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,211

Max offer price $307,153

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3033 W Desert Vista Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,035	$1.34	44d	1	0.03mi
28575 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,184	$2.00	2d	31	0.11mi
28425 N Black Canyon Hwy Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1187	$1,516	$1.28	24d	1	0.13mi
3020 W Red Fox Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	44d	1	0.15mi
28425 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,925	$1.69	44d	1	0.19mi
28425 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,158	$1.55	24d	1	0.19mi
28201 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,246	$2.23	2d	28	0.24mi
2821 W Red Fox Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1455	$1,999	$1.37	44d	1	0.33mi
2831 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1455	$1,850	$1.27	18d	1	0.33mi
2837 W Eagle Talon Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,500	$1.60	3d	1	0.34mi
2831 W Eagle Talon Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1504	$1,999	$1.33	3d	1	0.35mi
2871 W Blue Sky Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1339	$1,986	$1.48	8d	1	0.39mi
27777 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,287	$3.51	8d	1	0.53mi
2843 W Eagle Talon Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,250	$1.44	20d	1	0.62mi
2843 W Eagle Talon Trl Unit 51 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1560	$2,250	$1.44	20d	1	0.62mi
27441 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,325	$2.39	3d	9	0.64mi
2523 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,095	$1.38	13d	1	0.67mi
2523 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,095	$1.38	8d	1	0.67mi
3168 W Cedar Ridge Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	44d	1	0.76mi
27712 N 24th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,300	$1.52	15d	1	0.79mi
2518 W Bent Tree Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,500	$1.64	44d	1	0.82mi
2441 W Gambit Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,145	$1.20	8d	1	0.85mi
3236 W Caleb Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,250	$1.83	8d	1	0.87mi
2326 W Gambit Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,450	$1.37	44d	1	0.97mi
3232 W Cavedale Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,250	$1.28	11d	1	1.02mi
2222 W Mark Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,199	$1.46	13d	1	1.03mi
29223 N 22nd Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	22d	1	1.19mi
2130 W Hunter Ct #141 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1263	$2,100	$1.66	11d	1	1.22mi
29330 N 22nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1520	$2,100	$1.38	44d	1	1.22mi
29346 N 22nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1454	$2,200	$1.51	24d	1	1.22mi
28000 N North Valley Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,888	$1.45	22d	1	1.23mi
28000 N North Valley Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,165	$1.66	44d	1	1.23mi
29675 N North Valley Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,716	$1.52	15d	1	1.30mi
29319 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	4.5	1452	$2,410	$1.66	24d	1	1.31mi
29323 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,274	$1.22	22d	1	1.32mi
27941 N 19th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1822	$3,300	$1.81	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $420,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-05-12
    historical
18. 2014-08-29
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    WHAT A DOLL HOUSE! LOVELY OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH BACK KITCHEN OVERLOOKING FRONT LIVING AREA OVER HALF-WALL. NICE CIRCULATION AND USE OF SPACE! STONE-LOOK TILE THROUGHOUT THE HOME! KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR, SMOOTH-TOP RANGE, BUILT-IN MICROWAVE, AND DW! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT HOME! FRESH AND CLEAN! RECESSED LIGHTING, SO NICE! WATER HEATER JUST 3 YEARS OLD! NEAT AND TRIMMED LANDSCAPING, EASY-CARE TOO! ALL THIS PLUS WASHER AND DRYER! TRULY MOVE-IN READY!

19. 2014-08-29
    soldstatus $165,000

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    WHAT A DOLL HOUSE! LOVELY OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH BACK KITCHEN OVERLOOKING FRONT LIVING AREA OVER HALF-WALL. NICE CIRCULATION AND USE OF SPACE! STONE-LOOK TILE THROUGHOUT THE HOME! KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR, SMOOTH-TOP RANGE, BUILT-IN MICROWAVE, AND DW! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT HOME! FRESH AND CLEAN! RECESSED LIGHTING, SO NICE! WATER HEATER JUST 3 YEARS OLD! NEAT AND TRIMMED LANDSCAPING, EASY-CARE TOO! ALL THIS PLUS WASHER AND DRYER! TRULY MOVE-IN READY!

20. 2014-07-31
    status Pending 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    WHAT A DOLL HOUSE! LOVELY OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH BACK KITCHEN OVERLOOKING FRONT LIVING AREA OVER HALF-WALL. NICE CIRCULATION AND USE OF SPACE! STONE-LOOK TILE THROUGHOUT THE HOME! KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR, SMOOTH-TOP RANGE, BUILT-IN MICROWAVE, AND DW! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT HOME! FRESH AND CLEAN! RECESSED LIGHTING, SO NICE! WATER HEATER JUST 3 YEARS OLD! NEAT AND TRIMMED LANDSCAPING, EASY-CARE TOO! ALL THIS PLUS WASHER AND DRYER! TRULY MOVE-IN READY!

21. 2014-07-24
    listed $169,900 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    WHAT A DOLL HOUSE! LOVELY OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH BACK KITCHEN OVERLOOKING FRONT LIVING AREA OVER HALF-WALL. NICE CIRCULATION AND USE OF SPACE! STONE-LOOK TILE THROUGHOUT THE HOME! KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR, SMOOTH-TOP RANGE, BUILT-IN MICROWAVE, AND DW! CEILING FANS THROUGHOUT HOME! FRESH AND CLEAN! RECESSED LIGHTING, SO NICE! WATER HEATER JUST 3 YEARS OLD! NEAT AND TRIMMED LANDSCAPING, EASY-CARE TOO! ALL THIS PLUS WASHER AND DRYER! TRULY MOVE-IN READY!

22. 2003-01-10
    historical
23. 2002-11-11
    listed $148,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,466/yr (+$122/mo · 112.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$1,306
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$15,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-29 Sold (MLS) $165,000 ARMLS
• 2014-07-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-07-24 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2003-01-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-11-11 Listed $148,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,306 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.