4295 W Taral Terrace Dr · Sims, MI 48703

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1996 0.48 ac lot $95/sqft · 44% below area Est $181k · 36% under $3/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, fully furnished, 3 bed, 2 full bath home on a half acre lot. Affidavit of Affixture has been approved and recorded. Newer furnace and hot water heater, two wall a/c units. Also, on the property are 3 sheds, one shed is approximately 10x25 in like new condition, with metal roof. BONUS! Property comes with access to two private beaches on beautiful Lake Huron and is located close to Northport Marina. Get your boat in a slip, and start living the good life in Au Gres! This property is a great opportunity for a primary home, vacation home, or investment property. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer furnace
• Hot water heater

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• NEWER FURNACE
• HOT WATER HEATER
• TWO WALL A/C UNITS
• 3 SHEDS
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include a park, playground, and beach area; There is an association fee of $35 paid yearly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (street is a paved drive)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Natural gas heat and gas water heater; Electric power (implied)
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One-story structure; Built in 1996
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Wooded lot; Beach access to Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay; Great Lake frontage (legal water access); Paved street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (20 x 8); Dishwasher; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level (12 x 14) with carpet; Second bedroom on the main level (9 x 11) with carpet; Third bedroom on the main level (approx. 14' width) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Vinyl in living, dining, kitchen, and bathrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Main-level bathrooms with vinyl flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall/window air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Au Gres-Sims School District (rural): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #376 of 760 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $115k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,072
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -36.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4175 W Taral Terrace Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+3%)	6mo	$185,000	$148	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-12,410
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,749
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48703

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,653/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $115,000 Active 604-char remark
17. 2025-10-16
    historical
18. 2025-10-13
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 2005-06-09
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,653 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,653
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Au Gres-Sims School District
• NCES district ID: 2603600
• Math proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $37,262
• Composite: 36.05/100
• National rank: #9513
• State rank: #376 of 760 in MI

Livability — Sims

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.91%
• Current HPI: 157.0897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+259.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,653 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.