115 Rachel Dr · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 38 ac lot Est $150k · 10% under $315/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Discover the potential in this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in a welcoming 55+ community known for its friendly atmosphere and active lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to a community pool and a monthly neighborhood newsletter that helps keep everyone connected with community events and updates. Built in 1975, this home features a spacious open floor plan with an inviting layout, an updated kitchen, cozy carpeting, and a newer A/C system for added comfort. The primary bedroom includes its own private bathroom, while the open-concept living and dining areas create a comfortable flow for everyday living. Whether you're searc

Key facts

• Newer a/c system
• Updated kitchen
• Private bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER A/C SYSTEM
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AND DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Condo land included
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $315 (annual total $3,780)
• HOA & community: Tarpon Shores association with monthly fee of $315; Association amenities include cable TV, clubhouse, laundry, and pool; Association fee covers cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, structure and grounds maintenance, sewer, trash and water; Buyer approval required for association; Senior community; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sprinkler well; Cable available; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; East-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closets; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (included); Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $135k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,760
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Seagull Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	8mo	$130,000	$129	80
271 Northgate Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	936 (-2%)	13mo	$146,000	$156	79
237 Harmony Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	989 (+3%)	18mo	$160,000	$162	78
116 Rachel Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	866 (-10%)	19mo	$160,000	$185	67
39820 US Highway 19 N #9	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	11mo	$145,000	$131	50
39820 US Highway 19 N #43	0.34mi	2/2.0	816 (-15%)	17mo	$122,500	$150	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,357
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-13,545
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Saint Michaels Way Unit 520 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	0.19mi
673 Haven Pl #673 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	15d	1	0.24mi
640 Haven Pl #640 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	8d	1	0.27mi
524 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	24d	1	0.34mi
650 E Tarpon Ave Unit C1 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	8d	1	0.48mi
39650 US Highway 19 N #141 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,550	$1.63	4d	1	0.48mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.52mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.55mi
1113 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.62mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	2d	21	0.70mi
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	2d	6	0.78mi
329 Moorings Cove Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	20d	1	0.87mi
1250 S Pinellas Ave #504 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	565	$1,099	$1.95	24d	1	0.88mi
101 W Lemon St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	4d	1	0.88mi
101 W Lemon St Apt 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	22d	1	0.88mi
101 W Lemon St Unit 4 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	14d	1	0.88mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	24d	1	0.92mi
707 E Spruce St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	11d	1	0.95mi
812 Bayou Ave Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	675	$1,450	$2.15	24d	1	1.07mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	24d	1	1.07mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	24d	1	1.10mi
542 Division St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	629	$1,400	$2.23	12d	1	1.16mi
1990 Carolina Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	22d	1	1.31mi
606 Cross St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	551	$1,450	$2.63	2d	1	1.39mi
412 Riverside Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $315 · $3,780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    listed $135,000 Active
14. 2025-09-26
    historical $1,800
15. 2025-08-07
    listed $1,800
16. 2025-03-24
    historical $1,595
17. 2025-03-11
    price $1,595
18. 2025-02-26
    listed $1,800
19. 2023-12-24
    historical $1,650
20. 2023-10-05
    listed $1,650
21. 2013-11-19
    historical
22. 2013-09-18
    listed $35,000
23. 2013-02-17
    listed $33,000
24. 1991-09-01
    soldstatus $24,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$149
• After-tax cash flow: $2,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Rental Removed $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Rental Removed $1,595 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $1,595 STELLARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2023-12-24 Rental Removed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Listed for Rent $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2013-11-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-18 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-17 Listed $33,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.