410 Rogers Ave · Hampton, VA 23664

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1952

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1952
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.5% in Hampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#133 in VA, #4,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Francis Asbury Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 450 students, 84% FRL); Phoebus High (math 57% / reading 76%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,365 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $125k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.37%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 Benthall Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	1mo	$212,150	$185	75
2232 N Mallory St	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,232 (-6%)	0mo	$240,000	$195	74
220 N Fifth St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,307 (+0%)	1mo	$100,000	$77	74
231 N Fifth St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,339 (+3%)	3mo	$275,000	$205	74
419 Rogers Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-14%)	3mo	$156,000	$139	68
1 Easthill Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,284 (-2%)	4mo	$300,000	$234	68
786 N First St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+11%)	2mo	$678,450	$467	63
405 Buckroe Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	2mo	$342,000	$285	59
1914 Zinzer Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	4mo	$292,000	$234	57
2404 Andrews Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-7%)	0mo	$274,000	$226	57
30 Boykin Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+10%)	0mo	$300,000	$209	55
112 S 2nd St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,166 (-11%)	0mo	$345,000	$296	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $34,564
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $100,900
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23664

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,035/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1026 High Dunes Quay Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	24d	1	0.31mi
334 N 1st St Hampton, VA	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,495	$2.08	15d	1	0.39mi
203 N First St Unit A Hampton, VA	2.0	1.5	1406	$2,900	$2.06	44d	1	0.47mi
102 Silver Isles Blvd Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,900	$1.85	44d	1	0.68mi
2304 Burnette Dr Hampton, VA	4.0	2.0	1322	$2,100	$1.59	15d	1	0.71mi
216 S 2nd St Hampton, VA	2.0	2.0	1429	$2,395	$1.68	21d	1	0.74mi
1805 Nickerson Blvd Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,695	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
44 Glenhaven Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,500	$1.77	15d	1	0.85mi
2109 Newton Rd Hampton, VA	2.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1700	$2,065	$1.21	2d	3	0.88mi
10 Westlawn Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,295	$1.57	24d	1	0.89mi
311 Atlantic Ave Unit 1533635P Hampton, VA	4.0	2.5	1506	$6,554	$4.35	8d	1	0.90mi
229 Atlantic Ave Hampton, VA	2.0	1.0	1170	$1,600	$1.37	12d	1	0.94mi
1665 N Mallory St Hampton, VA	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,785	$1.43	44d	1	0.97mi
11 Camellia Ln Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,400	$1.45	44d	1	1.01mi
2010 E Pembroke Ave Hampton, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	4d	1	1.02mi
29 Glascow Way Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1382	$2,200	$1.59	15d	1	1.18mi
2000 Neville Cir Hampton, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	44d	1	1.23mi
900 Allendale Dr Hampton, VA	2.0	2.5	1680	$2,300	$1.37	24d	1	1.24mi
244 Loch Cir Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,850	$1.28	44d	1	1.31mi
948 Allendale Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,195	$1.34	4d	1	1.33mi
2001 Grimes Rd Hampton, VA	4.0	2.0	1430	$2,100	$1.47	3d	1	1.42mi
443 Sonora Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	3.0	1726	$2,395	$1.39	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2015-09-11
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,035
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $8,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101800
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,089
• Composite: 55.19/100
• National rank: #1272
• State rank: #40 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hampton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4302

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton, VA
• County: Hampton City · 132,421 people
• City population: 132,421
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,643
• Household income: $87,412
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 394.0

Population outlook (Hampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,055 people
• By 2030: 131,753 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 125,017 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 116,825 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 97,033 · -27.6%
• By 2100: 76,188 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.9) · D 69.2% · R 29.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp no change · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.9 2020: D+42.2 2016: D+37.8 2012: D+45.4 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.71%
• Current HPI: 238.491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+117.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 REINMLS
• 2015-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,035 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.