20821 E Cactus Wren Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$268,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Manufactured · 103 Days on market

Built 2025 9,147 sqft lot Est $235k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This is a modern and Brand new 2025 built Clayton Home on just under a quarter acre lot. This home is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, full size laundry room with upgrades which include 2x6 construction, 9' ceilings, 80'' windows, and kitchen sink package with new appliances. The community of Cordes Lakes is home to 3,800 friendly people andfeatures several markets, gas stations, a medical clinic, a McDonald's, Arby's, Godfather's Pizza, Subway and a Mexican Grill. Major shoppingis only 30 minutes away in Prescott Valley. At 3,700 feet of elevation, summers are typically 10-15 degrees cooler than Phoenix and wintersare mild with snowfall averaging less than 2 inches per year. If youwould like a quieter

Key facts

• 80 windows
• Kitchen sink package
• Quarter acre lot

Tags

• QUARTER ACRE LOT
• 2X6 CONSTRUCTION
• 9 CEILINGS
• 80 WINDOWS
• KITCHEN SINK PACKAGE
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Private water; Septic (WWT - Septic Conv); Electric water heater; Double-pane windows with blinds
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Tempo plan
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Stem wall basement; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Level lot; County road frontage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 three-quarter)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Formal dining; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Live on one level; Master bedroom on main level; Wash/dry connection
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $269k implies a 2589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,271 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-4%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	63
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+11%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	61
20935 E Bright Sun (1.03 Acres) Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-7%)	16mo	$306,000	$261	61
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+9%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	60
20542 E Stagecoach Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	19mo	$220,000	$176	59
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+12%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	54
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	50
20524 E Concho Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-12%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	46
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-15%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	46
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-7%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	45
16035 S Rodeo Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+4%)	19mo	$245,000	$187	41
20576 E Quail Run Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+9%)	16mo	$230,500	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $128,388
• Equity at exit: $242,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $392,368
• Equity at exit: $522,414

Cash invested: $75,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,410
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $227,795

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-191	+0% $-284	+5% $-377	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-363	+0% $-284	+5% $-205	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-216	base $-284	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,225
• Closing costs: $8,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $268,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $268,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $268,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $268,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $268,900 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $269,000
18. 2026-04-27
    price $269,000
19. 2026-03-10
    listed $269,500 Active
20. 2026-03-10
    listed $269,500 Active
21. 2026-01-10
    historical
22. 2026-01-10
    historical
23. 2025-12-12
    price $279,000
24. 2025-12-12
    price $279,000
25. 2025-10-30
    price $286,000
26. 2025-10-30
    price $286,000
27. 2025-10-03
    listed $297,500 Active
28. 2025-09-12
    listed $297,500 Active
29. 2025-09-02
    historical
30. 2024-09-18
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,063
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$1,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$7,823
• Taxable loss: −$8,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2590.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $269,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $269,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $269,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $279,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $286,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $286,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $297,500 ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $297,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Coming Soon — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $117 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.