17863 Lionheart Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 163 Days on market

Built 2026 10,233 sqft lot $169/sqft · at area comps Est $234k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Microwave oven
• Dishwasher

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MICROWAVE OVEN
• DISHWASHER
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• CEILING FANS
• GARAGE DOOR OPENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($582/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $185,745 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,559
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: 0.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,072
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-26,959
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $115	+0% $49	+5% $-287	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-25	+0% $49	+5% $122	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $108	base $49	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.51mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	9d	1	1.09mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.09mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 359-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $234,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $234,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    The Aspen - With 1388 Square feet, the Aspen plan is a 3 bedroom/2 bath and offers ample space. 42" cabinets, stainless steel appliances, microwave oven, and dishwasher are some of the features this home offers. Wait until you see the luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower in the primary bedroom! With ceiling fans in the primary bedroom and great room, you'll stay cool and comfortable all year round. The garage door opener, blinds, and keyless entry add extra convenience to your daily life.

18. 2026-03-22
    price $239,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    The Aspen - With 1388 Square feet, the Aspen plan is a 3 bedroom/2 bath and offers ample space. 42" cabinets, stainless steel appliances, microwave oven, and dishwasher are some of the features this home offers. Wait until you see the luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower in the primary bedroom! With ceiling fans in the primary bedroom and great room, you'll stay cool and comfortable all year round. The garage door opener, blinds, and keyless entry add extra convenience to your daily life.

19. 2026-03-20
    price $239,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

20. 2026-01-09
    listed $244,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

21. 2026-01-01
    listed $244,900 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    The Aspen - With 1388 Square feet, the Aspen plan is a 3 bedroom/2 bath and offers ample space. 42" cabinets, stainless steel appliances, microwave oven, and dishwasher are some of the features this home offers. Wait until you see the luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower in the primary bedroom! With ceiling fans in the primary bedroom and great room, you'll stay cool and comfortable all year round. The garage door opener, blinds, and keyless entry add extra convenience to your daily life.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,299 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,829/yr (+$319/mo · 814.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$3,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $234,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $239,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $244,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.