2993 County Road 3011 · Dayton, TX 77535

$208,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $211k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful country property situated on a full 1-acre lot in Dayton, Tarkington ISD! This well-maintained home, built in 1973, offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living space. The was recently leveled in 2023, giving peace of mind to future buyers. Inside, you’ll find that the paint, walls, and flooring have all been kept in good condition, reflecting consistent care over the years. Outside is a covered back patio, 2 car garage with ample storage or workspace and separate storage shed. The real standout here is the land, a full acre with plenty of space to enjoy country living, add improvements, or simply spread out and relax. Whether you’re looking for an affordable primary residence, investment opportunity, or a place to make your own, this property offers great potential at an attractive price point.

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• 2 car garage
• Full 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULL 1 ACRE LOT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,642 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,492
• List price: $208,900
• Delta: -1.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,387
• Equity at exit: $31,148

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,576
• Equity at exit: $18,062

Cash invested: $58,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,095
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $208,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,225
• Closing costs: $6,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $208,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $208,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $208,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $208,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $208,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $208,900 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Peaceful country property situated on a full 1-acre lot in Dayton, Tarkington ISD! This well-maintained home, built in 1973, offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a functional layout and comfortable living space. The was recently leveled in 2023, giving peace of mind to future buyers. Inside, you’ll find that the paint, walls, and flooring have all been kept in good condition, reflecting consistent care over the years. Outside is a covered back patio, 2 car garage with ample storage or workspace and separate storage shed. The real standout here is the land, a full acre with plenty of space to enjoy country living, add improvements, or simply spread out and relax. Whether you’re looking for an affordable primary residence, investment opportunity, or a place to make your own, this property offers great potential at an attractive price point.

15. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus
16. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus
17. 2018-12-13
    soldstatus
18. 2018-12-12
    soldstatus Sold 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

19. 2018-11-24
    status Pending 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

20. 2018-11-19
    status Option Pending 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

21. 2018-11-02
    price $130,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

22. 2018-09-01
    price $160,000 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

23. 2018-08-02
    listed $165,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    An outstanding 1 story, 1,288 sq. ft. country home sitting on an incredible ONE ACRE LOT! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath along with 2 car detached garage and separate WORK SHOP. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a shaded one acre lot away from the busy city life. A spacious living room and combination kitchen/casual dining area greet you from the front door and lead on to 3 large bedrooms in back. A large one of kind work shop with built-in shelving and work tables allows plenty of space for handy man projects. Come to the country and check out this marvelous opportunity before it’s gone!

24. 2018-07-17
    historical
25. 2018-06-18
    listed $180,000 Active
26. 2011-01-30
    historical
27. 2009-07-29
    listed $57,000
28. 2006-08-12
    historical
29. 2006-01-23
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,823 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,983/yr (+$249/mo · 355.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,702
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$1,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$6,077
• Taxable loss: −$3,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $1,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+364.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $208,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-02 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2018-09-01 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-02 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-06-18 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2011-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-29 Listed $57,000 HARMLS
• 2006-08-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-01-23 Listed $45,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · -62.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.