202 W Canada St · Sturgeon, MO 65284

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,623 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1920 0.60 ac lot $80/sqft · 43% below area Est $230k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#183 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sturgeon R-V (rural): math 22% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #212 of 324 in MO (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,808 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,215
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -43.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 E Mcdowell St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	14mo	$298,900	$181	71
23365 N Lark Song Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+3%)	4mo	$390,000	$233	65
311 W Francis St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-2%)	7mo	$339,900	$214	59
23330 N Tumbleweed Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,700 (+5%)	4mo	$449,000	$264	57
412 W Jaxon St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-6%)	1mo	$349,900	$228	56
301 W Francis St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-8%)	2mo	$318,000	$212	54
307 W Harris St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+8%)	8mo	$249,000	$142	54
415 W Francis St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+3%)	11mo	$364,900	$218	53
202 N Fairgrounds Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-14%)	8mo	$299,900	$214	51
307 W Francis St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-6%)	12mo	$337,900	$220	49
412 N Ogden St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-15%)	3mo	$277,900	$201	47
409 W Smith St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	15mo	$283,900	$203	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $81,715
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $231,907
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65284

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $130,000 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

3. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

4. 2026-04-03
   listed $150,000 Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

5. 2026-03-29
   historical $150,000 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   This is now active! Fresh paint and laminate flooring. New shingles on the roof. Home inspection in hand - will need work on the crawlspace so it is being sold as-is at a new price of 130K. Prefer cash or conventional financing.

6. 2026-02-09
   status Active
7. 2026-01-22
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-05
   price $149,900
9. 2025-07-22
   price $159,900
10. 2025-06-30
    listed $160,500 Active
11. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus
12. 2021-03-02
    listed $139,900
13. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus
14. 2019-07-05
    listed $119,900
15. 2011-12-05
    soldstatus
16. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$92
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sturgeon R-V
• NCES district ID: 2929700
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,851
• Composite: 29.89/100
• National rank: #6396
• State rank: #212 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sturgeon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #9697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sturgeon, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,172

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.55%
• Current HPI: 321.3924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Coming Soon $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $149,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $159,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $160,500 CBORMLS
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2021-03-02 Listed $139,900 CBORMLS
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2019-07-05 Listed $119,900 CBORMLS
• 2011-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · +42.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.