21490 Bay Village Dr #162 · Fort Myers Beach, FL 33931

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 881 sqft · Condo public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1983 $917/mo HOA · 24% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Best priced 2/2 condo on Fort Myers Beach! Located in quiet Bay Village just a short bike ride or walk to the beach and Santini Plaza. This unit offers incredible value and opportunity. Featuring new LVP flooring and new paint throughout (no carpet), 2023 AC, it’s ready for your cosmetic updates to create the perfect coastal escape. Enjoy community amenities including a pool, fishing dock, and kayak access. Walk or bike to the beach, dining, and shopping. First floor above garage spaces, with elevator for convenience and peace of mind of no interior flooding ever! Ideal as a seasonal retreat, full-time residence, or strong rental investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Kayak access
• Community amenities

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• 2023 AC
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• FISHING DOCK
• KAYAK ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (fee amount provided); HOA covers insurance, pest control, trash and water; Community amenities: boat dock, barbecue, picnic area, pool, tennis courts, trails, management; Condo-hotel community with elevator; near hotel/motel; non-gated

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Attached carport with 1 covered space; One assigned space (carport)
• Security: Security guard; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: 2-story property; Entry level 1; Resale property; Faces southwest
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Community pool; Has view; Rectangular lot; Northeast exposure; Private paved road (privately maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Includes guest quarters
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Furnished; Kitchen island; Open living/dining area; Pantry; Separate shower (shower only); Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 0.3% in Fort Myers Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#489 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 876 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,802/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 145% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.35%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,131
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,627
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33931

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 876
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,971/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$917
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,440

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $343	+0% $286	+5% $230	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $136	+0% $286	+5% $436	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $337	base $286	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Lazy Way Unit 1 Fort Myers Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	24d	1	0.35mi
4811 Coquina Rd Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1083	$3,800	$3.51	24d	1	0.86mi
6897 Estero Blvd #125 Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	778	$4,500	$5.78	24d	1	1.01mi
22652 Island Pines Way #155 Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	811	$3,800	$4.69	24d	1	1.05mi
6891 Estero Blvd #331 Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$4,500	$5.41	24d	1	1.08mi
7390 Estero Blvd Unit 203b Fort Myers Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$3,200	$5.33	17d	1	1.38mi
4421 Bay Beach Ln #643 Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$4,500	$4.33	24d	1	1.41mi
7400 Estero Blvd Fort Myers Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$8,042	$8.65	12d	2	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $917 · $11,004/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   price $214,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-03-23
    price $215,000
13. 2026-03-06
    price $239,000
14. 2026-02-13
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,971 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,971 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,971
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,650
• − Management: −$3,650
• − HOA: −$11,004
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $3,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #8995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers Beach, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,350
• Household income: $79,018
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 145.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.12%
• Current HPI: 837.37
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $215,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $239,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,971 · +121.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.