2530 Cresap St · Lakeland, FL 33815

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2022 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Exquisite 2022-built manufactured home nestled on a spacious 0.27-acre lot in Lakeland’s Winston area! This modern 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence boasts approximately 1,200 sq ft of living space and offers the ideal blend of style, comfort and value. Step inside to a bright, open layout featuring contemporary finishes and thoughtful flow throughout. Outside, enjoy the generous yard—rare for a home of this type—providing room for play, pets or future enhancements. Positioned in a convenient location, you’ll appreciate easy access to major roads, local amenities, and the growing Central Florida market. Whether you’re a first-

Key facts

• Easy access
• Bright open layout
• Generous yard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• GENEROUS YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-3; Lot approx. 0.27 acres (110 x 108), paved/asphalt road access
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Front faces north
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built as a single wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $235k implies a 968% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,396 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $106,151
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $345,292
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,843/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $160,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-289	-5% $-355	+0% $-422	+5% $-488	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-482	+0% $-422	+5% $-361	+10% $-301
Rate	-1.0pp $-303	-0.5pp $-362	base $-422	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2206 W Highland St Unit 2208 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,125	$1.49	12d	1	0.38mi
2559 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,500	$1.50	16d	1	0.81mi
2463 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	25d	1	0.82mi
2259 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,400	$1.40	16d	1	0.82mi
457 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	4d	1	0.85mi
455 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	21d	1	0.86mi
607 Kansas Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	829	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	1.01mi
1618 Wayman St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	994	$1,750	$1.76	25d	1	1.07mi
3327 Old Tampa Hwy Unit N/A Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,290	$1.63	16d	1	1.07mi
524 Montana Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	817	$1,300	$1.59	25d	1	1.09mi
515 Oregon Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	5d	1	1.12mi
2117 Ivey Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,980	$1.71	25d	1	1.18mi
1514 Alice Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,250	$1.35	16d	1	1.25mi
512 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	25d	1	1.33mi
1246 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	25d	1	1.33mi
510 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	16d	1	1.33mi
1238 Herschell St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1323	$1,300	$0.98	25d	1	1.37mi
1301 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	756	$1,300	$1.72	16d	1	1.37mi
518 Pinewood Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	891	$1,175	$1.32	25d	1	1.38mi
1206 W Highland St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,495	$1.54	25d	1	1.40mi
1213 W Patterson St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	16d	1	1.41mi
808 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	1.45mi
806 N Swindell Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,450	$1.46	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $235,000
3. 2026-04-30
   price $230,000
4. 2026-03-10
   price $242,900
5. 2026-03-06
   listed $248,900 Active
6. 2026-03-02
   historical
7. 2026-01-17
   price $248,900
8. 2025-11-08
   listed $249,000 Active
9. 2025-10-22
   historical
10. 2025-07-31
    price $250,000
11. 2025-04-24
    listed $259,000 Active
12. 2024-07-10
    historical
13. 2024-01-12
    listed $260,000 Active
14. 2005-05-06
    soldstatus $22,000
15. 2005-05-06
    soldstatus $22,000
16. 2005-04-08
    listed $24,900
17. 2005-04-08
    listed $24,900
18. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus $21,000
19. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,843
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$9,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,245
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4172.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $242,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $248,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $248,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-06 Sold (MLS) $22,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-06 Sold (MLS) $22,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-08 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-08 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,843 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.