2907 S Santa Fe Ave #10 · San Marcos, CA 92069

$249,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1984 $337/sqft · 110% above area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled manufactured home in desirable all age community Springdale Estates. Community provides lots of activities for the young and elderly. This park is under rent control through the city of San Marcos. The manufactured home has been beautifully upgraded throughout and shows pride of ownership. Monthly fee is 906.58

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,240
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 112.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Las Flores Dr #36	0.20mi	2/2.0	800 (+8%)	24mo	$309,000	$386	53
1515 E Capalina Rd Spc 4	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	676 (-8%)	10mo	$119,000	$176	39
1515 Capalina Rd Spc 10	0.74mi	2/1.0	818 (+11%)	18mo	$65,000	$79	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,590
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $19,003
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92069

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $814	-5% $728	+0% $642	+5% $556	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $524	+0% $642	+5% $761	+10% $879
Rate	-1.0pp $768	-0.5pp $706	base $642	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Smilax Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,799	$3.27	2d	8	0.23mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1189	$4,330	$3.64	2d	24	1.23mi
856 Heatherwood Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$2,950	$3.75	3d	8	1.24mi
1982 Wellington Ln Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$3,036	$3.56	3d	3	1.28mi
1045 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–3.0	902	$3,398	$3.77	2d	16	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    listed $249,000 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Remodeled manufactured home in desirable all age community Springdale Estates. Community provides lots of activities for the young and elderly. This park is under rent control through the city of San Marcos. The manufactured home has been beautifully upgraded throughout and shows pride of ownership. Monthly fee is 906.58

15. 2026-03-10
    historical
16. 2026-01-16
    price $249,000
17. 2025-10-02
    price $270,000
18. 2025-09-18
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $3,981
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$955
• After-tax cash flow: $6,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,335
• Household income: $96,771
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2399.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 11% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -522.69%
• Current HPI: 376.182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $270,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $299,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2013): $356 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.