28976 Alder Ter · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92321

$304,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1968 7,788 sqft lot Est $342k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cedar Glen Mountain Retreat – Move-In Ready Experience the best of mountain living in this beautifully updated Cedar Glen cabin, ideally located just minutes from Lake Arrowhead Village, where you can find shopping, dining, and year-round recreation. Tucked away on a peaceful hilltop surrounded by towering trees, this inviting home offers the privacy, tranquility, and natural beauty that buyers seek when looking for a mountain getaway or full-time residence. Large windows frame the surrounding forest, bringing the outdoors in and filling the home with natural light. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features 2 comfortable bedrooms and 1 bathroom, with convenient access fr

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Easy access to parks
• 7,788 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS WRAPAROUND DECK
• DOWNSTAIRS STORAGE AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO PARKS
• QUIET SECLUDED ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0–1 unit/acre (lot dimensions: 7788, source: assessor's data); Paved road access; No fencing; Parcel number available
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Cable available
• Home design: Cabin-style property; Single-story; Entry level: 2; Has a view
• Construction: No common walls (detached); Year built sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Wrap-around patio/porch; Patio present; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range and electric oven; Water heater unit; Eating area
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with bathtub and shower (shower-in-tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace; Fireplace for supplemental heat (living room)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Ceramic counters; Storage space; Front door entry; All bedrooms on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $305k implies a 824% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,971 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,880
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Ponderosa Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	962 (+14%)	1mo	$325,000	$338	66
292 Hemlock Dr	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	810 (-4%)	17mo	$495,000	$611	60
28810 Cedar	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	884 (+5%)	4mo	$435,000	$492	59
29259 Lake Brook Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	728 (-13%)	3mo	$189,000	$260	58
29167 arrowhead Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	912 (+9%)	18mo	$325,400	$357	52
273 Oak Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0	892 (+6%)	23mo	$370,000	$415	51
29198 Lake Brook Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	725 (-14%)	22mo	$295,000	$407	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $151,654
• Equity at exit: $274,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $457,672
• Equity at exit: $592,546

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92321

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,891/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $265,196

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29184 Lake Brook Ave Cedar Glen, CA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	44d	1	0.31mi
209 Cool Creek Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,500	$2.47	44d	1	0.85mi
112 Rockledge Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	5d	1	0.93mi
587 Arrowhead Villa Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,350	$2.72	44d	1	0.98mi
29180 North Dr Unit 1 bedroom Cedar Glen, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	2d	1	0.98mi
28101 Lakes Edge Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,600	$2.35	24d	1	1.11mi
545 W Victoria Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,000	$2.33	24d	1	1.14mi
28380 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	18d	1	1.23mi
28393 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,200	$1.99	44d	1	1.25mi
701 Pinnacle Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,995	$1.86	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,999 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $304,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,891
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$8,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 828

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.53%
• Current HPI: 510.4737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+824.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $304,999 CRMLS
• 1987-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,891 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.