19 Juliet St · Jamestown, NY 14701

$69,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 857 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 4,726 sqft lot Est $107k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom home, with potential for a third. This home offers off-street parking and a detached garage, providing ample space for your vehicles and storage needs. Built on a solid foundation, this house stands strong and proud. The newer roof adds to the home's appeal, ensuring you'll stay dry and secure in all seasons. Step inside to find a cozy living area that leads to a functional kitchen that could use some finishing work. The bedrooms are bright and inviting, ready to be filled with your personal touch. The home's real gem is the fenced-in backyard and back porch. It's a private oasis, perfect for hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying a quiet morning coff

Key facts

• Back porch
• Fenced-in backyard
• Off-street parking

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 16.6% in Jamestown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $70k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.62%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,125
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
264 King St	0.26mi	3/1.0	900 (+5%)	13mo	$104,900	$117	62
40 Martin Rd	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	922 (+8%)	5mo	$55,000	$60	54
425 Hazzard St	0.57mi	3/1.0	878 (+2%)	13mo	$70,000	$80	53
103 Springdale Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-2%)	9mo	$105,000	$125	51
260 Valleyview Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	816 (-5%)	9mo	$133,908	$164	48
258 Springdale Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	960 (+12%)	6mo	$140,000	$146	38
64 Collins Ave	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	864 (+1%)	23mo	$150,000	$174	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $11,215
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $39,021
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $372	+0% $353	+5% $333	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $306	+0% $353	+5% $400	+10% $447
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $370	base $353	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-07-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-14
   listed $69,900 Active
3. 2024-09-05
   historical
4. 2024-09-05
   historical
5. 2024-08-27
   status Pending
6. 2024-08-23
   listed $89,900 Active
7. 2013-01-18
   listed $41,900
8. 2012-09-12
   listed $43,500
9. 2007-02-26
   soldstatus $42,000
10. 2007-02-23
    soldstatus $42,000
11. 2006-12-01
    listed $45,000
12. 1992-10-22
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $3,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jamestown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615630
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,240
• Composite: 30.69/100
• National rank: #6176
• State rank: #553 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #8213

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, NY
• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+94.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-01-18 Listed $41,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-09-12 Listed $43,500 UNYREIS
• 2007-02-26 Sold (MLS) $42,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-01 Listed $45,000 UNYREIS
• 1992-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.