2806 Exter Dr · Mobile, AL 36606

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1987 7,039 sqft lot Est $207k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

Key facts

• Family room
• Dining room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BRAND NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($136/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,236 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2806 Exter Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+3%)	1mo	$205,000	$138	94
25 Chadwick Dr W	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,476 (+2%)	1mo	$138,000	$93	88
2757 S Sherwood Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,510 (+5%)	0mo	$218,000	$144	81
2656 Foreman Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	2mo	$145,000	$97	76
3051 Baronne St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+1%)	1mo	$190,000	$131	73
160 Emogene Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	2mo	$195,000	$128	70
1841 Woodcock Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-8%)	0mo	$195,000	$147	68
1833 Woodcock Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-8%)	1mo	$195,000	$148	66
1813 Woodcock St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-12%)	1mo	$195,000	$154	61
2663 Foreman Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+10%)	1mo	$185,000	$117	61
2756 Jennings Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	0mo	$215,000	$165	55
134 Hyland Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	2mo	$227,500	$179	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,572
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,663
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36606

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Dunn Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,250	$0.86	20d	1	0.22mi
2500 Dauphinwood Dr Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	13d	19	0.24mi
168 W Collins St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	968	$725	$0.75	20d	1	0.31mi
2855 Potter Dr Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,050	$0.93	43d	1	0.38mi
2861 Potter Dr Unit 1043844P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,492	$1.67	20d	1	0.40mi
2863 Potter Dr Unit 1043693P Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1496	$3,049	$2.04	13d	1	0.40mi
2604 Dauphin St #210 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	20d	1	0.42mi
2604 Dauphin St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,072	$1.13	43d	2	0.42mi
2861 Ralston Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,650	$1.02	43d	1	0.44mi
3060 Emogene St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	13d	1	0.50mi
2859 Brierwood Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	13d	1	0.57mi
200 S Florida St Unit 101 Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,375	$1.20	20d	1	0.57mi
2656 Pathway Pl Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0	778	$1,261	$1.62	13d	9	0.65mi
2507 Taylor Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,495	$1.22	13d	1	0.68mi
2503 Richard Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	928	$805	$0.87	13d	1	0.72mi
315 Hadrian St Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1843	$1,800	$0.98	43d	1	0.74mi
107 Grand Blvd Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	20d	1	0.76mi
120 Paris Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,150	$1.09	20d	1	0.76mi
3252 Orleans St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	43d	1	0.80mi
156 Hemley Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,195	$1.28	43d	1	0.83mi
104 Ellinor St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,275	$1.42	20d	1	0.85mi
418 Durande Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,350	$0.93	13d	1	0.91mi
461 Magnolia Rd Unit A Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	989	$825	$0.83	43d	1	1.12mi
505 Bel Air Blvd Mobile, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,274	$1.30	13d	16	1.20mi
151 Du Rhu Dr Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,800	$2.66	13d	12	1.21mi
209 S Fulton St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.5	1255	$1,750	$1.39	20d	1	1.25mi
182 Williams St Unit 1043570P Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1399	$2,476	$1.77	13d	1	1.27mi
3655 Old Shell Rd Unit 3655 Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	13d	1	1.36mi
186 Stanton Rd Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$2,450	$1.94	43d	1	1.37mi
713 Iris Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1617	$1,300	$0.80	20d	1	1.45mi
562 Clarke St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	43d	1	1.46mi
615 Mohawk St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,500	$1.28	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

3. 2026-04-07
   price $199,900 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

4. 2026-04-07
   price $199,900

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

5. 2026-03-02
   price $209,900 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

6. 2026-03-02
   price $209,900

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

7. 2025-11-21
   listed $219,900 Active 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

8. 2025-11-21
   listed $219,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Desirable Cromwell Place, Midtown. This spacious home features a family room, dining room, 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms plus an office all designed for comfortable living. This charming home offers original hardwood floors throughout, updated Kitchen, new stainless appliances, brand new HVAC, updated electric, new lighting fixtures, new bathroom fixtures, freshly painted and move in ready just in time for Christmas. Call today and find your Dreams a home! Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$197/yr (+$16/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $51,303
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 999.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.19%
• Current HPI: 145.9025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,900 BCAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $209,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $209,900 BCAR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $219,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-21 Listed $219,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.