404 E Orange St · Sherman, TX 75090

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 927 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1940 9,365 sqft lot Est $123k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with incredible upside in the heart of Sherman. Situated on a large lot with mature trees, this property offers a rare opportunity to revive an existing home or start fresh with a new build. The home is in need of significant renovation and is being sold as is, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking for a value add project. Located in Sherman, one of the fastest growing cities in North Texas, with expanding industry, jobs, and long term appreciation potential. The spacious lot, established trees, and convenient location make this a compelling opportunity for those seeking land value and future growth. Bring your vision and unlock the potential.

Key facts

• New build
• Large lot
• Existing home

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• EXISTING HOME
• NEW BUILD
• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Percy W Neblett El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 559 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 473 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.34%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,291
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 E Orange St	0.00mi	2/1.0	927 (0%)	0mo	$75,000	$81	100
1108 N Throckmorton St	0.28mi	2/1.0	958 (+3%)	15mo	$167,500	$175	69
911 N Branch St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+9%)	18mo	$109,950	$109	51
1706 N Shannon St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,066 (+15%)	9mo	$141,500	$133	44
612 W Belden St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+9%)	12mo	$125,000	$124	44
601 E Carter St	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,029 (+11%)	20mo	$159,900	$155	44
1112 N Lockhart St	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,021 (+10%)	16mo	$125,000	$122	39
629 E Pacific St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+13%)	23mo	$180,000	$171	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $13,547
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $35,465
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75090

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 473
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,301/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $675

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $482	+0% $461	+5% $440	+10% $419
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $411	+0% $461	+5% $511	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $480	base $461	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Frisco Rd Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	682	$795	$1.17	44d	1	0.28mi
1312 N Travis St Sherman, TX	3.0	1.5	1086	$1,325	$1.22	44d	1	0.30mi
620 N Walnut St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	44d	1	0.53mi
1615 N Alexander St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$950	$1.15	21d	1	0.53mi
221 W Taylor St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	917	$1,425	$1.55	21d	1	0.57mi
820 N Sam Rayburn Fwy Unit 204 Sherman, TX	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,350	$1.31	44d	1	0.65mi
907 W Birge St Sherman, TX	2.0	2.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	44d	1	0.70mi
814 W College St Sherman, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.74mi
2222 N Hickory St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	44d	1	0.77mi
1706 N Ricketts St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,600	$1.45	21d	1	0.78mi
2309 N Hickory St Sherman, TX	2.0	2.0	951	$1,250	$1.31	44d	1	0.80mi
411 W Pelton St Unit B Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,025	$1.01	21d	1	0.85mi
2409 Hickory St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,500	$1.37	44d	1	0.86mi
2407 N Shannon St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1027	$1,495	$1.46	21d	1	0.87mi
302 W Pelton St Sherman, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,450	$1.51	44d	1	0.90mi
1420 Park Pl Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	44d	1	1.00mi
1420 Park Pl Unit 001 Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	21d	1	1.00mi
1200 W Taylor St Sherman, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	814	$849	$1.04	21d	42	1.09mi
1350 W Taylor St Sherman, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	21d	129	1.19mi
108 N Cleveland Ave Sherman, TX	3.0	1.5	1060	$1,200	$1.13	44d	1	1.20mi
410 S Vaden St Unit A Sherman, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	44d	1	1.20mi
817 W Lamar St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,495	$1.39	44d	1	1.23mi
906 W Houston St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	989	$1,175	$1.19	44d	1	1.24mi
304 E King St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,250	$1.43	44d	1	1.25mi
908 W Houston St Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	989	$1,299	$1.31	21d	1	1.26mi
515 N Colbert Ave Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	707	$1,250	$1.77	21d	1	1.36mi
106 N McKown Ave Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,050	$0.98	21d	1	1.45mi
1600 La Salle Dr Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	687	$1,014	$1.47	21d	15	1.46mi
816 S Crockett St #3 Sherman, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$675	$1.12	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-02-09
   listed $75,000 Active
4. 1998-04-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,301 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,301
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $4,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840080
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,587
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6665
• State rank: #546 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1027
• US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sherman, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 54,936
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,594
• Household income: $55,543
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.00%
• Current HPI: 276.5739
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.70%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 1998-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,301 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.