1415 Neosho St · Emporia, KS 66801

$134,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,469 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1930 6,534 sqft lot Est $144k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Downtown emporia
• Champs landing
• Vinyl floors

Tags

• DOWNTOWN EMPORIA
• ESU
• CHAMPS LANDING
• NEWER CARPET
• VINYL FLOORS
• ONE YEAR OLD HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($882/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#60 in KS, #3,810 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Emporia (town): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #146 of 169 in KS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Elem (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 684 statewide, top 52%, 288 students, 59% FRL); Emporia Middle School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #164 of 219 statewide, top 76%, 900 students, 62% FRL); Emporia High (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #161 of 327 statewide, top 50%, 1,510 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $134k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,908 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,962
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1327 Lawrence St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-9%)	5mo	$130,000	$98	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,311
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,185
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66801

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,383/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $111	+0% $74	+5% $36	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $26	+0% $74	+5% $121	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $108	base $74	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $134,000
3. 2026-02-23
   price $139,000
4. 2026-02-16
   historical $1,150
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $149,000 Active
6. 2026-02-03
   listed $1,150
7. 2026-01-06
   historical $1,150
8. 2025-12-30
   listed $1,150
9. 2025-12-15
   historical $1,150
10. 2025-12-06
    price $1,150
11. 2025-10-25
    listed $1,250
12. 2024-09-21
    historical $1,250
13. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,250
14. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,383 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 36.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$1,383
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$1,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Emporia
• NCES district ID: 2005940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,740
• Composite: 20.34/100
• National rank: #8607
• State rank: #146 of 169 in KS

Livability — Emporia

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #3810

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emporia, KS
• County: Lyon County · 27,585 people
• City population: 27,585
• Metro: Emporia, KS
• Population (ZIP): 27,585
• Household income: $56,794
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1054.0

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,170 people
• By 2030: 33,104 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 32,526 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 31,863 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 31,879 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 30,609 · -7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.6% · R 56.3% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.0 2016: R+16.2 2012: R+11.9 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -186.93%
• Current HPI: 186.0786
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Emporia, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+262.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $134,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $139,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-16 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-13 Listed $149,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-03 Listed for Rent $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-06 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-30 Listed for Rent $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-15 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-25 Listed for Rent $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-21 Rental Removed $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,383 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.