38334 Cottonwood Pl Unit . · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 921 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1987 $345/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Driftwood a 55+ Gated Community. This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home features an open floor plan with 1095 sq. ft. of living space. Driftwood community is in a central location close to Hospital, Doctors, Shopping, and Restaurants. Schedule your appointment today to check out this home!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Central location
• $345 HOA

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo land included; Condo fees listed as $0; Directions: From 301 turn East onto County Road 54 then North on Dairy Road to community on right, turn right on Cottonwood to address.
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $4,140; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: HOA required; Monthly association fee $345; Association covers pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, trash, and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, pool, shuffleboard court, community mailbox; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Association name listed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Guest parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High‑speed/BB Internet available
• Home design: Residential condominium; One story; North facing; Floor 1
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Porch; City limits location; Near public transit; Paved streets; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $150k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,057 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-36,528
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-57,847
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $667/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$345
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $127,057

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.06mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.12mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.15mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.50mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.55mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.65mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.67mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.68mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.71mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.77mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.79mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	0.86mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	0.97mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.04mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	2d	34	1.07mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	1.08mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.12mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.12mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.14mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	1.15mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.18mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	1.25mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	1.26mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.43mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	1.43mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.43mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.43mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.44mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	1.45mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	1.46mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	1.46mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	1.48mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $345 · $4,140/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2026-05-04
    historical
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $149,900 Active
17. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus $77,500
18. 2003-03-19
    soldstatus $57,000
19. 2000-09-05
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 1995-08-30
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$577/yr (+$48/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$667
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − HOA: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$966
• After-tax cash flow: $-586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+191.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.